ارزیابی اثرات عوامل انسانی بر سطح آب‌های زیرزمینی: کاربرد الگوسازی فضایی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران.

2 گروه مهندسی آب، فاضلاب و محیط زیست، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، آب و محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

10.22059/jwim.2024.368514.1117

چکیده

در این مطالعه به‌منظور ارزیابی اثرات ناشی از عوامل انسانی بر عمق منابع آب زیرزمینی از برآورد الگوهای آمار فضایی پانل استفاده شده است که تمامی استان‌های ایران را در حد فاصل سال‌های 1387 الی 1398 در بر می‌گیرند. عوامل انسانی موردبررسی عبارتند از جمعیت، سطح باغات آبی، سطح زیرکشت زراعی آبی، سرانه ارزش افزوده صنعتی، سرانه ارزش افزوده خدمات و میزان عدم وابستگی به منابع آب زیرزمینی. نتایج حاصل از الگوسازی فضایی نشان می‌دهد که سه عامل اول یعنی جمعیت و سطح باغی و زراعی آبی اصلی‌ترین عوامل اثرگذار بر عمق منابع آب زیرزمینی به‌حساب می‌آیند، به‌طوری‌که یک درصد افزایش در هر یک از آن‌ها به‌ترتیب به اندازه 196/0، 089/0 و 062/0 درصد به افزایش عمق آبخوان‌ها منتهی می‌شود. هم‌چنین جانمایی فعلی جمعیتی و فعالیت‌های کشاورزی آبی در اقصی نقاط کشور نیز به گونه‌ای است که با شرایط آب‌های زیرزمینی و میزان وابستگی به این منابع همخوانی ندارد و تداوم این وضعیت تنها به تداوم هرچه بیش‌تر تخلیه‌شدگی منابع آب زیرزمینی منتهی می‌شود. علاوه بر این نتایج الگوسازی نشان می‌دهد که توسعه صنعتی سهمی ناچیز بر عمق آبخوان‌ها دارد و توسعه بخش خدمات نیز برخلاف سایر فعالیت‌های اقتصادی می‌تواند زمینه‌ساز احیای منابع آب زیرزمینی شود. میزان عدم وابستگی به منابع آب زیرزمینی نیز با کاهش فشار بر منابع آب زیرزمینی می‌تواند به احیای این منابع کمک نماید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of anthropogenic factors influencing groundwater level: Application of spatial modeling

نویسندگان [English]

  • Soorena Naderi 1
  • Ali Moridi 2
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
2 Department of Water, Wastewater and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

In this study, different spatial models for panel data have been estimated in order to evaluate the effects of anthropogenic factors on the depth of groundwater resources, which includes all the provinces of Iran between the years 2008 and 2019. The investigated anthropogenic factors are the population, the area under irrigated orchard farming, the area under irrigated crop farming, per capita industrial value-added, per capita services value-added and the level of non-dependency on ground water resources. The results of the spatial modeling illustrate that the first three factors, i.e., the population and the area under irrigated orchard and crop farming, are the main factors influencing the depth of groundwater resources, so that one percent increase in each of them bring about an increase in the depth of aquifers by 0.196, 0.089, and 0.062 percent, respectively. Furthermore, the current distribution of the population and irrigated agriculture activities throughout the country are not compatible with the groundwaters’ conditions and the level of dependency on these resources, and the continuity of this situation will only lead to the persistence of the depletion of groundwater resources. In addition, the modeling results reveal that industrial development has a negligible contribution to the depth of aquifers, and the development of the service sector, unlike other economic activities can even help restoring groundwater resources. The level of non-dependency on groundwater resources can also help to restore these resources by reducing the pressure on groundwater resources.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Groundwater crisis
  • Irrigated farming
  • Moran’s test
  • Spatial econometrics

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مدیریت آب و آبیاری
دوره 14، شماره 1
فروردین 1403
صفحه 91-109

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