تبیین سناریوهای فراروی مناسبات هیدروپلتیک‏ رودخانه‌های مرزی ایران و عراق

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.

2 مؤسسه تحقیقات آب، وزارت نیرو، تهران، ایران.

10.22059/jwim.2023.351144.1032

چکیده

درهم‌تنیدگی مناسبات قدرت با اندرکنش‌های جوامع و واحدهای سیاسی- فضایی بر سر منابع آب شیرین در حوزه مطالعه هیدروپلتیک‏ قرار دارد. آن دسته از رودهایی که از مرزهای بین‌المللی می‌گذرند یا بخش‌های مختلف آن در قلمرو چند کشور واقع شده‌اند، بسامد بیش‌تری در پژوهش‎های هیدروپلتیک‏ داشته‌اند. هدف از مقاله حاضر که ماهیتی کاربردی دارد، تبیین سناریوهای محتمل فراروی مناسبات آینده هیدروپلتیک‏ رودهای مرزی و مشترک ایران و عراق است. روش‌شناسی حاکم بر پژوهش توصیفی- تحلیلی است. درون‌داد‌های (داده و اطلاعات) موردنیاز پژوهش با روش کتابخانه‌ای و میدانی (مصاحبه و پرسشنامه) گرد‌آوری و با بهره‌گیری از مدل‌های FCOPRAS، FSOARA و SAW و نرم‌افزار‌های Micmac و Scenario Wizard موردبررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که از 31 وضعیت احتمالی مربوط به هفت الگو سناریو با سازگاری قوی و محتمل، وضعیت‌هایی که مناسبات فراروی آینده هیدروپلتیک‏ رودهای مرزی و مشترک ایران و عراق را بحرانی بیان می‌کنند، بیش‌ترین وضعیت‌های احتمالی ممکن را در بر می‌گیرند. بنابراین، وضعیت فراروی مناسبات هیدروپلتیک‏ رودهای مرزی و مشترک ایران و عراق بحرانی نمود یافته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Explaining the Future Scenarios of the Hydro Political Relations of the Border Rivers of Iran and Iraq

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zakeyeh Aftabi 1
  • Morad Kaviani Rad 1
  • Hamid Kardan moghadam 2
1 . Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi university, Tehran, Iran.
2 Water Research Institute, Ministry of Energy Water Research Institute, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The entanglement of power relations with the interactions of societies and political-spatial units over fresh water resources is in the field of hydro politics. Those rivers that cross international borders or its different parts are located in the territory of several countries, have had more frequency in hydro political researches. The purpose of this article, which is of a practical nature, is to explain the possible scenarios for the future hydro political relations of the border and joint rivers of Iran and Iraq. The research methodology is descriptive- analytical. The data needed for the research has been collected by library and field method (interview and questionnaire) and analyzed using FCOPRAS, FSOARA, SAW models and Micmac and Scenario Wizard software. The results of the research showed that out of 31 possible situations related to seven scenario models with strong and likely compatibility, the situations that describe the future hydro political relations of the border and common rivers of Iran and Iraq as critical, the most possible situations are in they take. Therefore, the future situation of the hydro political relations of the border and joint rivers of Iran and Iraq has become critical.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • coastal countries
  • critical situation
  • foresight
  • water resources management

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مدیریت آب و آبیاری
دوره 13، شماره 2
تیر 1402
صفحه 487-507

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