ارزیابی آسیب‌شناسی بهره‌برداری از قنات به منظور پتانسیل‌ تأمین آب با رویکرد تئوری استخوان ماهی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مدیریت ساخت و آب، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

2 مؤسسه تحقیقات آب وزارت نیرو.

10.22059/jwim.2023.352703.1039

چکیده

مفهوم ریسک به عنوان یک روش‌ و تکنیک در بیان مدیریت ظهور و ارائه‌دهنده خطرات تلقی می‌گردد. رویکردهای مختلفی برای ارائه این مفهوم وجود دارد که یکی از این تکنیک‌ها استفاده از روش استخوان ماهی است. از طرفی نیز تعیین ریسک بدون شناخت ابعاد مفهومی بی‌معنی است لذا هدف از این مطالعه استفاده ترکیبی از روش‌های تصمیم‌گیری طوفان فکری، SWOT و استخوان ماهی جهت تجزیه و تحلیل علل اصلی حوادث و ریسک‌های مترتب به قنوات، پرداختن به جزئیات، دسته‌بندی آن‌ها و تبدیل تهدیدها به فرصت‌هاست. پس از برگزاری جلسات طوفان فکری برای شناسایی آسیب‌های وارد بر قنوات ماتریس SWOT مبتنی بر نقاط ضعف، قوت، فرصت و تهدید تکمیل شده و با استفاده از روش استخوان ماهی ترسیم علل ریشه‌ای تحلیل گردید. نتایج روش SWOT نشان داد که راهبردهای پیشنهادی می‌بایست در وضعیت قوت از منظر عوامل داخلی با امتیاز 57/2 و تهدید از منظر عوامل خارجی با امتیاز 49/2 بصورت راهبردهای محافظه‌کارانه تعریف شود. از طرفی نیز نتایج ریسک‌های بهره‌برداری از قنات به دو دسته خطرات بالقوه قنات‌داری و خطرات بیرونی تاثیرگذار تقسیم‌بندی شده و نتایج حاکی از بالابودن اهمیت ریسک‌های تکنولوژیک با میانگین امتیاز 85/7 بوده که براین اساس راهبردهای محافظه‌کارانه مبتنی بر شرایط ریسک تعریف گردید. نتایج و راهبردهای ارائه شده دراین مطالعه می‌تواند رویکردهای مدیریتی مناسبی را در اختیار متولیان جهت بهره‌برداری بهینه از این منبع آب در اختیار قرار دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of the pathology of using the aqueduct for the potential of water supply with the fishbone theory approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mona Masoudi Ashtiani 1
  • ahmad sharafati 1
  • Hamid Kardan Moghadam 2
1 Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Water Research Institute, Ministry of Energy, Tehran.
چکیده [English]

The concept of risk is considered as a method and technique in expressing the emergence and presentation of risks. There are different approaches to present this concept, one of these techniques is using the fishbone method. On the other hand, determining the risk without knowing the conceptual dimensions is meaningless, so the purpose of this study is to use a combination of brainstorming, SWOT and fish bone decision making methods to analyze the main causes of accidents and risks associated with canals, deal with details, categories classifying them and turning threats into opportunities. After holding brainstorming sessions to identify the damage to the canals, the SWOT matrix based on weaknesses, strengths, opportunities and threats was completed and the root causes were analyzed using the fishbone method. The results of the SWOT method showed that the proposed strategies should be defined as conservative strategies in terms of strength from the perspective of internal factors with a score of 2.57 and threats from the perspective of external factors with a score of 2.49. On the other hand, the results of the risks of using the aqueduct are divided into two categories: potential risks of the aqueduct and effective external risks, and the results indicate the high importance of technological risks with an average score of 7.85, which is why conservative strategies based on risk conditions were defined. The results and strategies presented in this study can provide appropriate management approaches to the trustees for the optimal use of this water source.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Conservative Strategy
  • Fishbone
  • Qanat
  • Risk
  • SWOT Matrix

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مدیریت آب و آبیاری
دوره 13، شماره 1
فروردین 1402
صفحه 239-257

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