پیش بینی اثرات تغییر اقلیم و کاربری زمین بر تغییرات مکانی و زمانی تغذیه آب زیرزمینی با استفاده از مدل توزیعی WetSpass-M ( مطالعه موردی محدوده مطالعاتی هشتگرد، ایران)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی عمران، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

2 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده فناوری کشاورزی ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران.

10.22059/jwim.2023.350426.1026

چکیده

هدف اصلی این پژوهش، برآورد تغذیه آب زیرزمینی در  کنار دیگر مؤلفه­های  بیلان (رواناب، تبخیر و تعرق و برگاب) در دشت هشتگرد، با استفاده از مدل توزیعی WetSpass-M در شرایط تغییرات اقلیم و کاربری زمین در دوره ۳0 سال آتی است. نقشه کاربری زمین با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره لندست سال‌های ۱۹۹۰، ۲۰۰۵ و ۲۰۲۰ در نرم‌افزار ENVI (نسخه 5.3) تهیه و برای مدل­سازی تغییرات کاربری زمین در سال ۲۰۵۰، از روش زنجیره‌مارکف پیاده­سازی­شده در نرم‌افزار TerrSet استفاده شد. در پایان، تأثیر تغییر اقلیم و کاربری زمین بر تغذیه آب زیرزمینی و دیگر مؤلفه‌های بیلان آبی با استفاده از مدل توزیعی WetSpass-M برای دوره ۲۰۵۰-۲۰۲۰ شبیه­سازی شده و اثر سناریوهای اقلیمی و کاربری زمین بر روی آن اعمال شد. نتایج تغییرات اقلیمی نشان داد دمای سالانه تا سال 2050 برای سناریوهای RCP2.6 وRCP8.5 به‌ترتیب 2/1 و ۲/۳ درجه سانتی‌گراد افزایش و بارش سالانه برای هر دو سناریو ۹۵/۱ درصد و ۴۷/4 درصد کاهش خواهد یافت. نتایج تغییر کاربری، نشان‌دهنده افزایش 105، 41 و هشت درصدی به‌ترتیب برای زمین مسکونی، بایر و کشاورزی و کاهش 94 درصدی در مراتع است. با افزایش کاربری‌های مسکونی و بایر و کاهش مرتع میزان تغذیه به ۶/۲۲۰ و بیلان آبخوان به ۹/۱۱۵- میلیون مترمکعب در سال خواهد رسید. در اثر تغییرات اقلیم و کاربری زمین سهم تبخیروتعرق افزایش و سهم تغذیه و برگاب از بارش کاهش یافته است. به‌طورکلی، در ارتفاعات به‌دلیل بارش بیش‌تر و در مناطق کشاورزی به‌دلیل آب برگشتی آبیاری، سهم تغذیه آب زیرزمینی افزایش یافته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Prediction of climate and land use changes effects on temporal and spatial fluctuation of groundwater recharge using WetSpass-M distributed model (Case study: Hashtgerd Aquifer, Iran)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abolfazl Hanifehlou 1
  • Seyed Abbas Hoseini 1
  • saman Javadi 2
  • ahmad sharafati 1
1 Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran,
2 Department of Water Engineering, College of Abouraihan, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

This study aimed to estimate groundwater recharge along with other balance components (runoff, evapotranspiration, and transpiration) in Hashtgerd plain, using the WetSpass-M distribution model in the conditions of climate change and land use in the next 30 years. To study the effects of climate change, the output of five models under four emission scenarios, i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5 of the Fifth Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) was utilized. The LARS-WG model was also used for the downscaleing of the climatic data. Land-use mapping was performed using Landsat images in 1990, 2005, and 2020 processed in ENVI 5.3. The Markov chain method in TerrSet software was used to predict land-use changes for 2050. In the end, the effect of climate change and land use on underground water supply and other water balance components was simulated using the WetSpass-M distribution model for the period 2050-2020 and the effect of climate and land use scenarios was applied on it. The climate change results showed that the annual temperature will increase by 1.2 and 3.2 degrees Celsius until 2050 for the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, and the annual precipitation will decrease by 1.95 and 4.47 Percent for both scenarios. The results of land use change show an increase of 105, 41, and 8 percent for residential, barren, and agricultural land, respectively, and a 94 percent decrease in pastures. With the increase of residential and barren uses and the decrease of pastureland, the permeability of the land will decrease, and as a result, the amount of surface discharge of the aquifer will decrease. Estimates, in general, showed that climate change has caused a decrease, land use change has increased the feeding of the aquifer in such a way that in the most critical scenario the amount of feeding will reach 220.6, and the balance of the aquifer will reach 115.9 million cubic meters per year. Because of climate and land use changes, the share of evaporation and transpiration has increased and the share of rescharge and runoff from precipitation has decreased. In general, in the highlands due to more rainfall and in agricultural areas due to irrigation return water, the contribution of underground water supply has increased.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • ENVI
  • Land use change
  • Markov chain
  • TerrSet
  • water balance

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مدیریت آب و آبیاری
دوره 13، شماره 1
فروردین 1402
صفحه 43-62

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