ارزیابی معادلات رگرسیونی چندمتغیره در تخمین عملکرد گندم و جو دیم در اقلیم‌های مختلف ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه علوم و مهندسی محیط زیست، دانشکده کشاورزی و محیط زیست، دانشگاه اراک، ایران.

2 استادیار، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و محیط زیست، دانشگاه اراک، اراک، ایران.

3 استادیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکدگان ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

ایران در منطقه‌ای خشک و نیمه خشک قرار دارد و بررسی شرایط کشت دیم گیاهان راهبردی امری بسیار ضروری است. بدین منظور برای مدلسازی عملکرد گندم و جو دیم در شرایط آب و هوایی ایران در واکنش به تغییرات اقلیمی داده‌های هواشناسی 44 ایستگاه در یک دوره چهل ساله (2020-1981) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. داده‌های هواشناسی پس از میان‌یابی مکانی بین ایستگاه‌ها و تبدیل کردن آن‌ها به داده‌های روزانه به‌عنوان ورودی یک مدل رگرسیون خطی چند متغیره برای تخمین عملکرد گندم و جو دیم به‌کار گرفته شدند. در این مطالعه ایران به شش اقلیم ساحلی مرطوب، کوهستانی، نیمه‌کوهستانی، نیمه‌بیابانی، بیابانی و بیابان ساحلی تقسیم گردید. نتایج نشان داد که بیشترین و کمترین بارندگی سالانه به‌ترتیب در ایستگاه‌های بندرانزلی (1748 میلی‌متر در سال) و زابل (55 میلی‌متر در سال) رخ داد. بیشترین کاهش بارندگی در ایستگاه بندرانزلی (شیب 5/8- درصد) و کمترین تغییرات در ایستگاه کرمانشاه با شیب معادله آن 0/08- درصد صورت گرفت. در بین ایستگاه‌های مورد بررسی فقط 11/36 درصد از نظر کشاورزی در شرایط مناسبی قرار دارند و در بقیه ایستگاه‌ها وضعیت بحرانی است (88/64 درصد). نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که ضریب تبیین در عملکرد شبیه‌سازی شده گندم دیم برای اقلیم‌ مرطوب‌تر به نسبت سایر اقلیم‌ها از دقت بیشتری برخوردار است (0/83=R2). کمترین ضریب تبیین در عملکرد شبیه‌سازی شده گندم دیم (0/71=R2) و جو دیم (0/53=R2) برای اقلیم بیابانی بدست آمد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of multiple regression equations for yield estimation of rain-fed wheat and barley in different Iran’s climates

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeed Sharafi 1
  • Saviz Sadeghi 1
  • mohammad Javad Nahvinia 2
  • Mohammad Abdolahipour 3
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Environment Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Environment, Arak University, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Environment, Arak University, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Iran is located in the arid and semi-arid area and it is very necessary to assess the conditions of rainfed farming of strategic plants. In order to assessment of wheat and barley yield under rainfed climatic conditions collected data from 44 stations were studied during the period of 1981-2020 (40 years). Weather data after spatial interpolation between stations and converting to daily values were used as inputs of a multiple regression model for estimating wheat and barley yield. In this study, Iran was divided into six coastal wet, mountain, semi mountain, semi desert, desert and, coastal desert. The results showed that the highest and lowest annual rainfall was observed in stations Bandar Anzali (1748 mm y-1) and Zabol (57.7 mm y-1), respectively. The greatest and lowest decrease in rainfall occurred in Bandar-Anzali station (gradient 5.8 percent) and, in Kermanshah station (gradient -0.8 percent) respectively. Only 11.36 percent of the stations were in good condition and, in other stations were in a critical situation (88.64 percent). The results of this study showed that the coefficient of determination of predicted yield for rainfed wheat in humid climates was more accurate than in other climates (R2=0.83). The lowest coefficient of determination predicted yield was obtained for rain-fed wheat (R2=0.71) and rain-fed barley (R2=0.53) in desert climates.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate
  • Coefficient of determination. Drought
  • Rain-fed farming
  • Yield gap

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مدیریت آب و آبیاری
دوره 12، شماره 1
فروردین 1401
صفحه 201-211

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