نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد, گروه مهندسی عمران, دانشکده عمران و محیط‌زیست, دانشگاه شهید بهشتی, تهران, ایران.
2 دانشکده مهندسی عمران، آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Concerns about the effects of global warming due to anthropogenic activities, all over the world especially in high-potential regions for extreme events, are increasingly growing. On the other hand, choosing the proper Global Circulation Model (GCM) is one of the main concerns of hydrologists and climatologists to investigate climate change impacts. Human-induced climate change has exerted immense pressure on Iran's water resources. This study statistically downscaled future precipitation and meteorological droughts over the Ardabil study area using the performance of seven General Circulation Models (GCMs). The best-performing GCM, MIROC6, was selected based on R2. A GCM was used to examine future precipitation and drought variability under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The results show that the average temperature increases 1.5-3 ° C. The average annual precipitation for Ardabil synoptic station is projected to increase from 279 mm to 292 mm under the SSP1-2.6 scenario and decrease to 228 mm under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Annual average precipitation changes by -18.3% to 4.8% by the end of the 21st century under various scenarios that this is precipitation changes are prone to more extreme events. However, focusing solely on average annual precipitation can be misleading. Other factors, such as changes in the timing of precipitation, should also be considered. According to the results, moderate droughts will increase in severity by a factor of 2 and in duration by a factor of 2.2, and long-term droughts will increase in severity by a factor of 2 and in duration by a factor of 2.5 compared to the observational data.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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