ارزیابی مکانی و زمانی روند شاخص‌های حدی دما و بارش ایران تحت تأثیر تغییر اقلیم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه صنعتی اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.

10.22059/jwim.2024.374814.1156

چکیده

پدیده تغییر اقلیم باعث تغییر در شدت و فراوانی پدیده‌های حدی به‌ویژه بارش‌های حدی شده است. تحلیل مکانی و زمانی روند بارش حدی به‌منظور افزایش انعطاف پذیری سیستم­های اجتماعی-اکولوژیکی و زیرساخت­های آن­ها تحت تغییر اقلیمی بسیار مهم است. این مطالعه به بررسی تغییرات مکانی-زمانی ویژگی‌های بارش همزمان با تغییر دما می­پردازد. برای این منظور، آزمون ناپارامتری اسپیرمن برای ارزیابی روند در سه شاخص بارش (بیشینه بارش سه و شش ساعته و مجموع بارش سالانه) و دو شاخص درجه حرارت (بیشینه و کمینه درجه حرارت سالانه) در 26 ایستگاه سینوپتیک واقع در گستره ایران استفاده شده است. در این پژوهش از آمار و اطلاعات 34 تا 70 ساله (از سال 1951 تا 2020) استفاده شد. روند داده‌ها در سطح معنی‌داری 95 درصد بررسی شد. نتایج نشان داد که بیشینه بارش سه و 24 ساعته در ایستگاه گرگان دارای روند مثبت است، اما شاخص مجموع بارش سالانه در این منطقه روندی منفی دارد، هم‌چنین بارش بیشینه سه و 24 ساعته در ایستگاه‌های اهواز، اصفهان و سمنان نیز دارای روند افزایشی معنی­دار بوده و این مناطق مستعد وقوع سیلاب هستند. هم‌چنین نتایج نشان داد که افزایش بارش بیشینه سه و 24 ساعته در دماهای بالاتر در تعداد محدودی از ایستگاه‌ها منجر به افزایش در بارش سالانه می‌شود و اکثر ایستگاه‌ها کاهش بارش را با افزایش دما نشان می‌دهند. هم‌چنین، بیشینه دما در همه ایستگاه‌ها (به‌جز شهرکرد و بیرجند) دارای تغییرات افزایشی است که نشان‌دهنده گرم‌شدن هوا در تابستان است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Spatiotemporal evaluation of temperature and precipitation extremes indices over Iran under the influence of climate change

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Jamali
  • Alireza Gohari
  • Ghazal Akhavan Saraf
Department of Water Science and Engineering, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The phenomenon of climate change has caused a change in the intensity and frequency of extreme phenomena, especially extreme rainfall. Spatiotemporal analysis of extreme precipitation is very important in order to increase the flexibility of socio-ecological systems and their infrastructures under climate change. This study examines the spatiotemporal changes of precipitation characteristics with temperature changes. For this purpose, Spearman's non-parametric test has been used to evaluate trends in three precipitation indices (maximum 3 and 6-hour precipitation and total annual precipitation) and two temperature indices (maximum and minimum annual temperature) in 26 synoptic stations located in Iran. In this research, statistics and information from 34 to 70 years old (from 1951 to 2020) were used. The trend of the data was checked at a significance level of 95%. The results showed that the maximum rainfall of 3 and 24 hours in Gorgan station has a positive trend, but the index of total annual rainfall in this region has a negative trend, also the maximum rainfall of 3 and 24 hours in Ahvaz, Isfahan and Semnan stations also has a significant increasing trend, and these areas are prone to flash floods. Also, the results showed that the increase in maximum 3-hour and 24-hour precipitation at higher temperatures in a limited number of stations leads to an increase in annual precipitation, and most stations show a decrease in precipitation with increasing temperature. Also, the maximum temperature in all stations (except Shahrekord and Birjand) has increasing changes, which indicates the warming of the air in summer.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Iran
  • Extreme precipitation
  • Spatiotemporal trend
  • Global warming

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مدیریت آب و آبیاری
دوره 14، شماره 3
آذر 1403
صفحه 743-752

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