ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر رواناب ورودی به سد مخزنی مخمل‌کوه با استفاده از مدل IHACRES

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم‌آباد، ایران.

2 گروه انرژی‌های نو و محیط زیست دانشکد‌گان علوم و فناوری‌های میان‌رشته‌ای، تهران، ایران.

10.22059/jwim.2023.358745.1073

چکیده

در پژوهش حاضر، رواناب ورودی به سد مخزنی مخمل‌کوه؛ واقع در استان لرستان؛ تحت سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم موردمطالعه قرار گرفت. بدین منظور، ابتدا با استفاده از نسخه ششم مدل LARS-WG، داده‌های بارش، دمای کمینه، دمای بیشینه و ساعات آفتابی برای منطقه موردمطالعه در دوره زمانی پایه 2014-1980 ریزمقیاس شده و پس از انتخاب مدل IPSL-CM6A-LR-INCA به‌عنوان سازگارترین مدل با منطقه موردمطالعه در  بین 26 مدل موجود در گزارش ششم IPCC، متغیرهای بارش، دمای کمینه، دمای بیشینه و ساعات آفتابی برای ایستگاه کاکارضا در سه بازه زمانی 2050-2026، 2075-2051 و 2100-2076 میلادی تحت سناریوهای SSP برآورد گردید. در مرحله بعد، با استفاده از مدل IHACRES و نتایج به‌دست‌آمده از مرحله قبل، رواناب ورودی به سد مخمل‌کوه در دوره­های آتی تحت سناریوهای SSP تخمین زده شد. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده از این پژوهش، نشان داد که رواناب ورودی به سد موردمطالعه در مقیاس ماهانه و فصلی و در همه دوره­های آتی تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی، کاهش خواهد یافت. بیش‌ترین میزان رواناب در بازه ماهانه، در ماه­ اکتبر تحت سناریوی SSP5-8.5 و کم‌ترین میزان کاهش آن نیز در ماه­ می تحت سناریوی SSP1-2.6 پیش­بینی شد. در مقیاس فصلی، بیش‌ترین میزان کاهش رواناب ورودی به سد، در فصل پاییز تحت سناریوی SSP5-8.5 و کم‌ترین میزان کاهش آن نیز در فصل بهار تحت سناریوی SSP1-2.6 تخمین زده شد. نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش نشان داد که پدیده تغییر اقلیم، اثر چشم‌گیری بر میزان رواناب ورودی به سد مخمل‌کوه خواهد داشت و لذا، در طرح‌های توسعه منابع آب باید اثرات این پدیده در نظر گرفته شود تا خسارت‌های ناشی آن برای آیندگان کاهش یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of Climate Change Effects on the Entering Runoff the Makhmalkoh Dam Using the IHACRES Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • babak shahinejad 1
  • حجت الله Yonesi 1
  • Ali Kakavand 1
  • Hossein yousefi sohzabi 2
1 Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran.
2 Renewable Energies and Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

In this study, the entering runoff to Makhmalkooh Dam; in Lorestan province; was studied under climate change scenarios. For this using, the data of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature and sunshine for the study area in the basic time of 1980-2014 were downscaled with LARS-WG6 model and after choosing the IPSL-CM6A-LR-INCA model as the most compatible model with the study area among the 26 models in the sixth IPCC report, precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature and sunshine were estimated for Kakareza station in three times of 2026-2050, 2051-2075 and 2076-2100 under SSP scenarios. After that, the entering runoff to Makhmalkooh dam was estimated in the future periods under the SSP scenarios using the IHACRES model and the results obtained from the previous step. The results of this study showed that the entering runoff the studied dam will decrease on monthly and seasonal scale in all future periods under SSP climate scenarios. The highest runoff in the monthly scale was predicted in October under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, and the lowest decrease was predicted in May under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. On seasonal scale, the highest amount of reduction in entering runoff to the dam was estimated in the autumn season under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, and the lowest amount of reduction was estimated in the spring season under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. The results of this study also showed that the climate change will have significant effect on entering runoff to Makhmalkooh dam and therefore, the impacts of this phenomenon should be considered in water resources development plans to reduce its damages for posterity.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • IHACRES model
  • LARS-WG model
  • sixth report of IPCC
  • SSP scenario

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مدیریت آب و آبیاری
دوره 13، شماره 3
مهر 1402
صفحه 735-754

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