ارزیابی و اولویت‌بندی ریسک سدها با استفاده از روش ترکیبی DEMATEL-ANP

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه مهندسی و مدیریت آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

10.22059/jwim.2023.354354.1045

چکیده

سدها علاوه بر منافع اجتماعی بسیاری که دارند امکان دارد با گذشت زمان نیز خطرات اجتماعی، اقتصادی، زیست‌محیطی و فنی‌مدیریتی را داشته باشند. سد پدیده عظیمی درطبیعت محسوب می‌گردد و اثرات آن بر روی محیط‌زیست به‌صورت گسترده است. یکی از مسائلی که می‌باید در زمان بهره‌برداری سدها موردبررسی قرار می‌گیرد، آثار زیست‌محیطی منفی در منطقه احداث سد است. از اثرات زیست‌محیطی منفی برای سدها به‌عنوان مثال می‌توان به رسوب‌گذاری در مخزن و دریاچه سد، تشدید فرسایش در اراضی پایین‌دست، شورشدن اراضی کشاورزی به‌علت بالاآمدن سطح آب‌های زیرزمینی اشاره کرد. اثرات ریسک‌های نام برده‌شده برای سدسازی، ممکن است جبران‌ناپذیر باشد. این پژوهش، با هدف ارزیابی اثرات ریسک‌های چهار معیار اجتماعی، اقتصادی، فنی ‌مدیریتی و زیست‌محیطی متأثر از احداث سد‌ها بر حوضه‌آبخیز موردبررسی قرار گرفته است. تصمیمات مربوط به مدیریت این سدها نیازمند شناخت خطرات و ریسک‌های موجود در سد و اولویت‌بندی آن‌هاست. استفاده از روش‌های تصمیم‌گیری چندشاخصه‌ای، ابزار مناسبی برای ارزیابی ریسک‌های مختلف در این سدها می‌باشد. در این مقاله از روش ترکیبی دیماتل- فرایند تحلیل شبکه‌ای، جهت شناسایی روابط بین معیارها و زیرمعیارهای ریسک و اولویت‌بندی آن‌ها استفاده ‌شده است. بنابراین، چهار معیار و 42 زیرمعیار برای ارزیابی ریسک‌های سه سد طالقان، ماملو و لار به‌روش فرایند تحلیل شبکه‌ای استفاده شده و نتایج نشان می‌دهد که سد طالقان در اولویت اول ریسک قرار دارد و زیرمعیار اشتغال، مربوط به معیار اقتصادی، با وزن 0720/0 دارای بیش‌ترین ‌ریسک و زیرمعیار تملک اراضی، مربوط به معیار فنی ‌مدیریتی با وزن 0029/0 دارای کم‌ترین ریسک نسبت به‌کل زیرمعیارها می‌باشد. هم‌چنین با انجام تحلیل حساسیت بیش‌ترین حساسیت نسبت به افزایش و کاهش 50 درصدی وزن معیار اقتصادی و کم‌ترین حساسیت نسبت به افزایش و کاهش 30 درصدی وزن معیار فنی‌مدیریتی می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Dams Risk Assessment and Their Prioritization Using DEMATEL-ANP Combined Method

نویسندگان [English]

  • raziye khosravi Taeme
  • jamal mohammad vali samani
  • Seyedeh Leila Razavi Toosi
Engineering and Water Management Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Even though dams have many social benefits, it also has caused social, economic, environmental and technical management risks along time. Due to the fact that the dam is considered a great phenomenon in nature, its effects on the environment are extensive. One of the issues that must be investigated during the operation of dams is the negative environmental effects in the dam construction area. The negative environmental effects of dams are including sedimentation in the dam's reservoir and lake, intensification of erosion in the downstream lands, inundation of agricultural lands due to rise of the underground water level. The effects of the mentioned risks for dam construction may be irreparable. The aim of this study is evaluating the effects of social, economic, technical management and environmental risks affected by the construction of dams on the watershed. Decisions related to the management of these dams require recognize the dangers and risks in the dam and prioritize them. Dam construction projects are more risky than other projects due to the high credits and time spent on their construction. Using multi-criteria decision-making methods is a suitable tool for evaluating different risks in these dams. In this study, the combined DEMATEL-ANP method is used to identify the relationships between risk criteria and sub-criteria and prioritize them. So, four criteria and 42 sub-criteria were determined to evaluate different risks in Mamloo, Taleghan and Lar dams and the network relationships between them were determined. The results show that the employment sub-criterion in economic criterion with a weight of 0.0720 has the highest risk and the land acquisition sub-criterion in management technical criterion with a weight of 0.0029 has the lowest risk compared to all sub-criteria.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic
  • Environmental
  • Multi-indicator decision-making
  • Social

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مدیریت آب و آبیاری
دوره 13، شماره 4
دی 1402
صفحه 1053-1069

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