تأثیر سناریوهای مختلف مدیریتی بر تغییرات کمی منابع آب حوزه بالخلی‌چای و آبخوان دشت اردبیل با استفاده از مدل MODSIM

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.

2 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.

3 استادیار، گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.

چکیده

استفاده از ابزارهای بهینه‌سازی- شبیه‌سازی از جمله رویکردهای موثری است که می‌تواند نقش قابل‌ملاحظه‌ای در تحلیل سناریوهای مدیریت منابع آب داشته باشد. در این پژوهش با استفاده از مدل برنامه‌ریزی منابع آب MODSIM، تأثیر سناریوهای مختلف مدیریتی در شرایط کمبود آب بر برنامه-ریزی تخصیص آب حوزه رودخانه بالخلی‌چای و هم‌چنین سطح ایستابی آبخوان دشت اردبیل، مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. واسنجی و صحت‌سنجی مدل با در نظر گرفتن هیدروگراف جریان سطحی خروجی از حوضه و هیدروگراف آبخوان و با استفاده از داده‌های دوره آماری 2014-2000 انجام و ضرایب جریان برگشتی با سعی و خطا تخمین زده شد. مقادیر شاخص‌های آماری جذر میانگین مربعات خطا و ضریب کارآیی نش-ساتکلیف در دوره واسنجی و صحت‌سنجی نشان‌دهنده عملکرد خوب مدل در شبیه‌سازی جریان سطحی و آب زیرزمینی و اجزای بیلان آب حوزه بالخلی‌چای بوده است. پس از اطمینان از دقت شبیه‌سازی مدل، سناریوهای مختلف مدیریتی از جمله سناریو رشد جمعیت (S)، تغییر راندمان آبیاری (S1) و تغییر الگوی کشت و راندمان آبیاری (S2) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج شبیه‌سازی نشان داد تحت سناریوهای S، S1و S2 میزان افت سطح آب زیرزمینی به‌ترتیب برابر 41/8، 36/3 و 31/2 متر و درصد تأمین تقاضای کشاورزی در شبکه آبیاری از سد مخزنی یامچی به ترتیب برابر 38، 43 و 48 درصد خواهد بود. بنابراین با اعمال سناریوهای مدیریت منابع آب، ضمن تامین نیازهای مختلف می‌توان از افت شدید سطح ایستابی آبخوان دشت اردبیل در سال‌های آتی جلوگیری کرده و گام موثری در تعادل‌بخشی آب زیرزمینی برداشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The effect of different management scenarios on quantitative changes in water resources of Balekhlichai river watershed and Ardabil plain aquifer using MODSIM model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fereshteh Arami shamasbi 1
  • Amin Kanooni 2
  • Saeed Rasinezami 3
1 Former graduate student, Department of water engineering, Faculty of agriculture and natural resources, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
2 Associated Professor, Department of water engineering, Faculty of agriculture and natural resources, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of civil engineering, Faculty of engineering, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The use of optimization-simulation tools is one of the effective approaches that can play a significant role in analyzing water resources management scenarios. In this study, using MODSIM water resources planning model, the effect of different management scenarios in water scarcity conditions on water allocation planning in Balekhlichai river catchment and also the water level of Ardabil plain aquifer was investigated. Calibration and validation of the model were performed by considering the surface flow hydrograph of the basin outlet and the aquifer hydrograph using the data of the statistical period 2000-2014. Then the return flow coefficients were estimated by trial and error. The values of root mean square error and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient in the calibration and validation period indicate the good performance of the model in simulating surface and groundwater flow and water balance components of catchment. After ensuring the accuracy of the model simulation, various management scenarios including population growth scenario (S), irrigation efficiency change (S1) and cultivation pattern and irrigation efficiency changes (S2) were examined. The results showed that under scenarios S, S1 and S2, the groundwater level drop will be equal to 8.41, 3.36 and 2.31 meters, respectively. Also, under scenarios S, S1 and S2, the percentage of agricultural demand supply in the Yamchi irrigation network from the reservoir will be equal to 38, 43 and 48 percent, respectively. Therefore, by applying water resources management scenarios, it is possible to prevent a sharp drop in the water level of the Ardabil plain aquifer in the future years and take an effective step in balancing groundwater.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Allocation
  • Simulation
  • Surface and groundwater
  • Yamchi irrigation network

مراجع

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مدیریت آب و آبیاری
دوره 11، شماره 4
بهمن 1400
صفحه 923-935

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