ارزیابی ظرفیت برد منابع آب در شرایط تغییر اقلیم با استفاده از رویکرد شبیه‌سازی – بهینه‌سازی؛ مطالعه موردی: حوضه آبریز طشک – بختگان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مهندسی و مدیریت منابع آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی و مدیریت منابع آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مهندسی و مدیریت منابع آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

امروزه منابع آب به عنوان یکی از بحرانی‌ترین منابع طبیعی و مسئله آب به عنوان یکی از جدی‌ترین چالش‌های جامعه بشری قرن 21 تبدیل شده است. مفهوم ظرفیت برد منابع آب جهت پاسخگویی به این نگرانی‌ها و استفاده بهینه از منابع آب ایجاد شده است. در مطالعه‏ی حاضر تلاش شده با استفاده از رویکرد شبیه‏سازی – بیهنه‌سازی، ظرفیت برد منابع آب در یک حوضه پایلوت با در نظرگیری مؤلفه‏های اقتصادی، زیست‏محیطی و منابع آبی در دوره‏ تاریخی (2014 – 1985) و در شرایط تغییر اقلیم (2045 – 2015) مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. در این راستا از ابزار ارزیابی آب و خاک (SWAT) و الگوریتم ژنتیک استفاده شده است. به منظور ارزیابی تغییر اقلیم در این مطالعه از خروجی‌های سه مدل گردش عمومی جو تحت سناریوهای RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5، استفاده شده‏ است. نتایج بیانگر این است که توانایی پشتیبانی منابع آب به واسطه‏ی نوسانات اقلیمی و تغییر اقلیم در دوره مورد بررسی (2045 – 1985) روند نزولی داشته است. از طرف دیگر بارگذاری بر منابع آبی به واسطه‏ی افزایش سطح زیر کشت افزایش یافته است. کاهش توانایی پشتیبانی منابع آب در کنار افزایش بارگذاری بر منابع آب سبب وارد شدن آسیب‌های جدی به منابع آب و محیط‌زیست حوضه شده است از این میان می‌توان به خشک شدن کامل دریاچه‌های حوضه اشاره کرد. در راستای مصرف متناسب با ظرفیت برد تحت بدبینانه‏ترین و خوش‏بینانه‏ترین سناریو در شرایط تغییر اقلیم با شرایط مدیریت فعلی حوضه، نیاز به کاهش درآمد ناخالص بخش کشاورزی به ترتیب با مقادیر 44/44 و 30 درصد می‏ باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Basin’s Water Resource Carrying Capacity Assessment in Climate Change Conditions Using Simulation-Optimization Approach; Case Study: Tashk-Bakhtegan basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamid Abbasi 1
  • Majid Delavar 2
  • Hamid Mohammadi Sedaran 3
1 M.Sc. Graduate, Department of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
3 . M.Sc. Student, Department of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is a major component of resource and environmental studies and it is a management concept aimed at supporting sustainable socioeconomic development on a regional scale and catchment areas. Failure to pay attention to concepts such as the carrying capacity in the country's planning has led to the ineffectiveness of most programs. For this purpose, in the present study, it has been tried to use the simulation-optimization approach to determine the water resources carrying capacity in a pilot basin (Tashk-Bakhtegan Basin), considering the economic, environmental and Water resources in the historical periods (1985-2014) and terms of climate change (2045-2015) should be considered. In this regard, the Water and Soil Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Genetic Algorithm are used. For this purpose, the outputs of three general circulation atmosphere models under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 scenarios have been used to assess climate change in this study. The results of the study indicate overloading of water resources due to increased crop area in all studied periods. Also, the water resources carrying capacity due to climate fluctuations and climate change in the examined period (1985 - 2045) has been declining, and from 2.6 billion cubic meters in the period (1985-2006) to 1.9 billion cubic meters. The most pessimistic climatic conditions are reduced.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Genetic algorithm
  • SWAT model
  • Tashk-Bakhtegan basin
  • Water resources carrying capacity

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مدیریت آب و آبیاری
دوره 11، شماره 4
بهمن 1400
صفحه 797-814

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