تحلیل حساسیت اثر عوامل اقلیمی و غیر اقلیمی بر نوسانات تراز آب زیرزمینی (مطالعه موردی: دشت نجف‌آباد)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار، پژوهشکده مطالعات و تحقیقات منابع آب، موسسه مؤسسه تحقیقات آب، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

این پژوهش به منظور بررسی عوامل اصلی اثرگذار بر نوسانات سطح آب زیرزمینی در دشت نجف‌آباد انجام گرفته است. جهت انجام این تحلیل، بازه زمانی 10‌ساله سال‌های 2004 تا 2014 در نظر گرفته شد و نوسانات دما، بارش، تغییرات دبی رودخانه بین دو مقطع ابتدا و انتهای محدوده مطالعاتی، تغییرات بهره‌برداری از آب زیرزمینی و تغییرات جریان آب در شبکه‌‌های آبیاری و زهکشی بررسی گردید. جهت برقراری ارتباط میان هر کدام از مؤلفه‌های ذکرشده با تغییرات تراز آب زیرزمینی در محدوده مطالعاتی، دو دسته‌بندی کلی برای تعیین هیدروگراف واحد آب زیرزمینی در نظر گرفته شد. در دسته‌بندی اول، هیدروگراف واحد آب زیرزمینی برای کل چاه‌های مشاهده‌ای در محدوده مطالعاتی تهیه شد. در دسته‌بندی دوم نیز این هیدروگراف برای چاه‌های مشاهده‌ای اطراف رودخانه تهیه گردید. سپس با استفاده از آنالیز رگرسیون چند متغیره در قالب نرم‌افزار SAS، بهترین ارتباط بین این مؤلفه‌ها با تغییرات تراز آب زیرزمینی تعیین شد. نتایج نشان داد که در حالتی که تغییرات هیدروگراف آب زیرزمینی در گروه اول مدنظر قرار داشته باشد، تغییرات برداشت آب زیرزمینی با سهم 36.19 درصد، بیشترین تأثیر را بر تغییرات تراز آب زیرزمینی داشته است. پس از آن تغییرات جریان در رودخانه با سهم 28.60 درصد، متغیر اثرگذار مهم خواهد بود. از طرف دیگر، زمانی که هیدروگراف واحد تراز آب زیرزمینی برای گروه دوم در نظر گرفته شود، تغییرات جریان در رودخانه با سهم 34.64 درصد بیشترین اثر را بر تغییرات تراز آب زیرزمینی خواهد داشت و سهم پمپاژ آب به 28.53 خواهد رسید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Sensitivity analysis of the effect of climatic and non-climatic factors on groundwater level fluctuations (Case study: Najafabad plain)

نویسنده [English]

  • Mohammad Javad Zareian
Assistant Professor, Department of Water Resources Study and Research, Water Research Institute, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

This study was conducted to investigate the main factors affecting groundwater level fluctuations in the Najafabad plain. For this analysis, the 10-year period from 2004 to 2014 was considered and changes in temperature, precipitation, in river discharge between the beginning and end of the study area, groundwater withdrawal and in water flow in irrigation and drainage networks, were analyzed. In order to establish the relationship between each of the mentioned components with the changes in groundwater level in the study area, two general classifications were considered to determine the groundwater unit hydrograph. In the first classification, a groundwater unit hydrograph was prepared for all observation wells in the study area. In the second category, this hydrograph was prepared for observation wells around the river. Then, using multivariate regression analysis in SAS software, the best relationship between these components with changes in groundwater level was determined. Results showed that if the changes of groundwater unit hydrograph level are considered in the first group, changes in groundwater withdrawal with a share of 36.19%, had the maximum impact on changes in groundwater level. After that, the changes in the river flow with a share of 28.60%, had the greatest share in groundwater fluctuations. On the other hand, when the groundwater unit hydrograph is considered for the second group, changes in flow in the river with a share of 34.64% will have the maximum effect on changes in groundwater level and the share of groundwater withdrawal will reach to 28.53.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Groundwater
  • Multivariate Regression
  • Najafabad
  • Sensitivity Analysis
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