تحلیل ریسک طرح‌های انتقال آب بین‌حوضه‌ای با روش تحلیل درخت خطای فازی (مطالعه موردی: فلات مرکزی ایران)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آب، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آب، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

امروزه یکی از راهکارها جهت تامین نیازهای روزافزون منابع آب و رسیدن به تعادل منطقه‌ای، طرح های انتقال آب بین حوضه‌ای است. این مطالعه، به بررسی هشت سناریو به منظور ارزیابی ریسک سناریوهای انتقال آب بین حوضه‌ای از حوضه کارون بزرگ به فلات مرکزی ایران با هدف تامین آب شرب می‌پردازد. اولویت بندی این سناریوها با استفاده از چهار معیار مهم و تأثیرگذار ریسک اجتماعی- سیاسی، ریسک زیست محیطی و منابع آبی، ریسک فنی و ریسک اقتصادی با توجه به معیارهای یونسکو انجام شده است. به کمک این معیارها، ده رویداد پایه موثر در طرح‌های انتقال آب بین حوضه‌ای شناخته شد. سپس به کمک مدل های درخت خطای صریح(FTA) و درخت خطای فازی (FFTA)، احتمال شکست روﯾﺪاد ﻧﺎﻣﻄﻠﻮب نهایی راس «شکست طرح های انتقال آب» برای سناریوها محاسبه شد. نتایج نشان داد انتقال آب از حوضه بهشت آباد از طریق پمپاژ و تونل کوتاه از دبی پایه بهشت آباد برای استان اصفهان و حوضه خرسان- سد خرسان3 برای استان های یزد و کرمان با احتمال شکست محاسبه شده صریح و فازی به میزان 0.65 و 0.61 سناریوی برتر می‌باشد. به دلیل میزان بالای احتمال شکست برآورد شده و به منظور شناسایی عوامل موثر بر وقوع این شکست، رویدادهای پایه براساس سهم وقوع خود در شکست رویداد راس به کمک دو شاخص BI و FIM، رتبه بندی شدند که نتایج حاکی از اهمیت بیشتر معیارهای اجتماعی- سیاسی و زیست محیطی در شکست طرح‌های انتقال آب بین حوضه‌ای بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Risk Analysis of Inter-Basin Water Transfer Plans by Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis Method (Case Study: Iranian Central Plateau)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Tahereh Ghanian 1
  • Abbas Roozbahani 2
1 M.Sc. Student in Water Resources Engineering, Department of Water Engineering, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Nowadays, one of the solutions to meet the growing water needs and achieve regional balance is inter-basin water transfer projects. This study examines eight scenarios in order to evaluate eight scenarios of inter-basin water transfer from great Karun watersheds to the central plateau of Iran with the aim of supplying drinking water. Prioritization and evaluation of these scenarios were performed using four important and effective criteria (social and political risk, environmental and water resources risk, technical risk and economic risk) in inter-basin water transfer according to UNESCO criteria. Then, with the help of these criteria, ten effective basic events in inter-basin water transfer projects. Then, using the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) models, the failure probability of top event "failure of water transfer projects" for all eight scenarios were calculated. The results showed that water transfer from Behesht-Abad basin through Pumping and short tunnel from Behesht-Abad base flow for Isfahan province and khersaan basin - khersaan dam to Yazd and Kerman provinces with crisp and fuzzy failure probability of 0.65 and 0.61 as the eighth scenario, is the superior scenario. Due to the high probability of failure and in order to identify the factors affecting the occurrence of this failure, the basic events were ranked based on their effect in the failure of the top event using two indicators of BI and FIM. The results indicate the greater importance of socio-political and Environment criteria in the failure of inter-basin water transfer projects.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Central plateau basin of Iran
  • Fault Tree Analysis
  • Fuzzy fault tree analysis
  • Inter-basin water transfer
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