بررسی عدم قطعیت داده‌های بارش TRMM در مدل سازی تراز آب زیرزمینی دشت رفسنجان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی عمران- مدیریت منابع آب، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، گروه مدیریت ساخت و آب، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

2 استادیار دانشکده مهندسی عمران، گروه مدیریت ساخت و آب، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

اطلاعات بارش نقش مهمی در محاسبه تغذیه آبخوان‌ها با استفاده از مدل‌های ریاضی بر عهده دارد. در سالهای اخیر با در دسترس قرار گرفتن داده‌های بارش ماهواره‌ای، بخصوص ماهواره‌های TRMM و GPM، روش‌های جدید و نوآورانه‌ای برای غلبه عدم دسترسی به داده‌های بارش ابداع شده است. با این وجود، موانعی نظیر عدم قطعیت داده‌ها، این روشها را با محدودیتهایی نیز مواجه کرده است. در این مطالعه، پس از برطرف نمودن خطای داده‌های ماهواره‌ای، از این اطلاعات بعنوان پارامتر تغذیه به کدMODFLOW، استفاده شد و عدم قطعیت تراز آب زیرزمینی توسط توابع مختلف کاپولا محاسبه گردید. بررسی خروجی های مدل آب زیرزمینی نشان دهنده‌ی کاهش 50 درصدی شاخص خطای جذر میانگین مربعات خطا(RMSE) بود. شایان ذکر است که حدود 90 درصد از سطح آبخوان دارای اختلاف تراز کمتر از 10 درصد، نزدیک به 8 درصد دارای اختلاف 20 تا 30 درصد ای و حدود 2 درصد آبخوان دارای اختلاف تقریبی 80 درصدی نسبت داده‌های مشاهداتی را نشان می داد. نتایج مذکور نشان دهنده عملکرد مناسب و با ضریب اطمینان بالای 90 درصد توابع کاپولا در محاسبه عدم قطعیت تراز آب زیر زمینی با استفاده از داده‌های بارش ماهواره‌ای بعنوان پارامتر تغذیه است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of TRMM precipitation data uncertainty in groundwater level modeling of Rafsanjan plain

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saman Seyf 1
  • Ahmad Sharafati 2
1 M.Sc. Student, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Construction and Water Management, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Asisstant Professor, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Construction and Water Management, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Precipitation information plays an important role in calculating aquifer nutrition using mathematical models. In recent years, with the availability of satellite precipitation data, especially TRMM and GPM satellites, new and innovative methods have been developed to overcome the lack of access to precipitation data. However, barriers such as data uncertainty also limit these methods. In this study, after correcting the satellite data error, this information was used as a feed parameter to MODFLOW code, and the groundwater level uncertainty was calculated by different Coppola functions. Examination of groundwater model outputs showed a 50% reduction in root mean square error index (RMSE). It is worth noting that about 90% of the aquifer had a difference of less than 10%, about 8% had a difference of 20 to 30% and about 2% of the aquifer had an approximate difference of 80% of the observational data ratio. The mentioned results show the proper performance and with a reliability coefficient of over 90% of the Coppola functions in calculating the groundwater level uncertainty using satellite precipitation data as the feeding parameter.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Copula Functions
  • Ground water level uncertainty
  • MODFLOW model
  • satellite rainfall
  • TRMM
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