نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی کارشناسی علوم و مهندسی آب دانشگاه تهران
2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع آب دانشگاه تهران
3 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی دانشگاه تهران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Sustainable groundwater management in arid and semi‑arid regions, particularly in major agricultural hubs such as the Qazvin Plain, faces significant challenges arising from the synergistic impacts of excessive groundwater extraction and hydrochemical degradation. Conventional vulnerability assessment models, which are largely based on compensatory operators (e.g., weighted linear combination), tend to mask critical zones because unfavorable conditions in one variable are averaged with favorable conditions in another.
This study introduces a novel non‑compensatory analytical framework to evaluate the cumulative risk of the Qazvin Plain aquifer over a 21‑year period (2001–2022). Within this approach, long‑term piezometric data and hydrochemical parameters were integrated using non‑compensatory spatial operators, particularly the spatial product operator, ensuring that areas simultaneously affected by severe quantitative decline and water‑quality deterioration are identified as absolute critical hotspots.
The spatiotemporal analyses reveal a substantial regime shift in the hydro‑dynamic and hydro‑chemical behavior of the aquifer, indicating a transition from relative stability to chronic stress conditions. An aggressive expansion of high‑risk zones was observed from the eastern and southeastern margins toward the central and western parts of the plain. A critical turning point was identified during 2010–2012, when the extent of high‑risk areas increased from approximately 30% to more than 50% of the study area. By 2022, over 65% of the aquifer was under critical stress, while approximately 42.5% was classified as high‑risk.
The non‑compensatory model successfully revealed hidden critical cores in the central plain that conventional approaches had previously misclassified as moderate risk. These findings indicate that the degradation of the Qazvin aquifer follows a nonlinear and self‑reinforcing process driven by a positive feedback loop between declining saturated thickness and increasing groundwater salinity.
The results demonstrate that separate evaluation of groundwater quantity and quality, or reliance on compensatory models, may lead to overly optimistic and potentially misleading assessments of aquifer conditions. The precise identification of critical hotspots in this study highlights the necessity of shifting from generalized groundwater management toward a spatially targeted management paradigm that prioritizes interventions based on cumulative risk. Accordingly, immediate and spatially differentiated management measures—such as demand management in the critical eastern sectors and artificial recharge in the western zones—are essential to prevent ecological and agricultural collapse in the region.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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