بررسی تأثیر سناریوهای مختلف تغییر اقلیم بر جریان ورودی به تالاب انزلی با کمک پویایی سیستم‌ها

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی(ره)، قزوین، ایران.

10.22059/jwim.2026.403225.1262

چکیده

وقوع تغییر اقلیم از یک‌سو و طرح‌های توسعه منابع آب در بالادست حوضه‌ها از سوی دیگر، موجب تغییر در توازن توزیع منابع آب و افزایش کمبود و ایجاد مناقشات بین ذینفعان خواهد شد. با توجه به درهم‌تنیدگی سیستم‌های منابع آب با سیستم‌های اقتصادی-اجتماعی و زیست‌محیطی، عدم توجه به مدیریت منابع آب بر سیستم‌های مذکور تأثیر می‌گذارد. هدف از انجام این مطالعه بررسی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر منابع و مصارف آب سطحی در حوضه سد سفیدرود و تالاب انزلی و به دنبال آن تغییرات دبی ورودی به تالاب انزلی به کمک پویایی سیستم‌ها است. لذا داده‌های بارشی پروژه CMIP6 در سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم SSP2.6، SSP4.5 و SSP8.5 در دوره-ی زمانی 2017 تا 2040 انتخاب و زیرسیستم‌های حوضه سد سفیدرود، حوضه تالاب انزلی و بخشی از شبکه آبیاری زهکشی سفیدرود در VensimPLE شبیه‌سازی شدند. نتایج نشان داد که به دلیل روند افزایشی برداشت‌های آب در بالادست سد سفیدرود و همچنین افزایش نیاز آبی آبیاری شبکه در دوره آینده، با وجود پیش‌بینی افزایش میانگین بارندگی، میانگین سالانه دبی ورودی به تالاب انزلی بین 1/3 تا 3/16 درصد کاهش خواهد یافت. با توجه به اهمیت شش‌ماهه‌ی دوم سال آبی در شبکه آبیاری، میانگین دبی رودخانه‌های ورودی به تالاب در این بازه‌ی زمانی بین 3/16 تا 9/32 درصد با کاهش مواجه خواهد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating The Effect Of Climate Change On Inflow To The Anzali Wetland Using Systems Dynamics

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamed Mazandarani Zadeh
  • Morteza Karimi
Department of Water Sciences and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Climate change, along with extensive water development in upstream basins, has altered the balance of water allocation and intensified water scarcity and conflicts among stakeholders. Considering the close interlinkage of water resources with socio-economic and environmental systems, inadequate integrated water management can lead to significant implications across these sectors. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on surface water resources and demands in the Sefidrood basin and Anzali Wetland watershed, and subsequently examines potential changes in inflow discharge to Anzali Wetland using a system dynamics modeling approach. Precipitation projections from the CMIP6 framework under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, and SSP8.5 scenarios for the period 2017–2040 were utilized, and the subsystems of the Sefidrood basin, Anzali Wetland catchment, and part of the irrigation–drainage network were simulated in VensimPLE. Results indicate that despite projected increases in mean precipitation, the rising upstream water withdrawals and future agricultural water demand may reduce the annual average inflow to Anzali Wetland by approximately 3.1% to 16.3%. Moreover, given the critical importance of the second half of the water year for irrigation supply, average river inflow during this period is expected to decline by 16.3% to 32.9% across scenarios.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • System Dynamics Modeling
  • Climate Change
  • River Discharge
  • CMIP6
  • Vensim

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مدیریت آب و آبیاری
دوره 16، شماره 1
تیر 1405
صفحه 31-48

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