شبیه‌سازی دبی جریان در پایین دست سد میجران با استفاده از مدل‌های غیرقطعی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه علوم و فناوری‌های محیطی، دانشکده مهندسی انرژی و منابع پایدار، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

10.22059/jwim.2025.403909.1266

چکیده

در شرایط اقلیمی خشک و نیمه‌خشک ایران، مدیریت بهینه منابع آب از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است. یکی از راه‌کارهای مؤثر در این زمینه، پیش‌بینی دقیق دبی‌جریان رودخانه‌هاست که می‌تواند نقش کلیدی در برنامه‌ریزی بهره‌برداری از سدها ایفا کند. در این پژوهش، با هدف شبیه‌سازی دبی‌جریان پایین‌دست سد‌ میجران واقع در استان مازندران، از داده‌های دبی ماهانه مربوط به ایستگاه هیدرومتری سد‌ میجران در بازه زمانی ۱۳۸۶ تا ۱۴۰۱ استفاده شد. پس از انجام تحلیل‌های مقدماتی شامل آزمون نرمال‌بودن و ایستایی داده‌ها و تجزیه آن به مؤلفه‌های قطعی و غیرقطعی، بخش غیرقطعی سری زمانی جهت مدل‌سازی انتخاب شد. سپس با استفاده از تابع خودهمبستگی (ACF) و تابع خودهمبستگی جزئی (PACF) مدل‌های سری زمانی با ساختارهای گوناگون موردارزیابی قرار گرفتند. بنابراین، از بین مدل‌های مختلف، مدل ARMA مناسب تشخیص داده شد. برای تعیین مرتبه‌های مدل ARMA، از تابع خودهمبستگی AFC و PACF استفاده شد و جهت ارزیابی عملکرد مدل‌ها، از معیار اطلاعاتی آکائیک (AIC) و ضریب تعیین (R²) بهره گرفته شد. نتایج نشان داد مدل ARMA(3,2) با مقدار AIC برابر با 06/144 و R² برابر با هفتاد و نه صدم، عملکرد بهتری نسبت به سایر مدل‌ها دارد و قادر است دبی‌جریان را با دقت قابل‌قبول شبیه‌سازی کند. یافته‌های این مطالعه نشان‌دهنده‌ی کارایی بالای مدل‌های غیرقطعی ARMA در شبیه‌سازی و پیش‌بینی سری‌های زمانی جریان آب در مناطق با اطلاعات محدود است و می‌تواند به‌عنوان ابزاری کارآمد در تصمیم‌گیری‌های مدیریت منابع آب مورداستفاده قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Simulation of Downstream Flow Discharge at Maijaran Dam Using Stochastic Models

نویسندگان [English]

  • Elham Feizabadi
  • Mohammad Mirzavand
  • Seyed Javad Sadatinejad
School of Energy Engineering and Sustainable Resources, College of Interdisciplinary Science and Technology, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

In the arid and semi-arid climatic conditions of Iran, optimal water resource management is of paramount importance. Accurate prediction of river flow discharge serves as an effective strategy in this regard, playing a key role in dam operation planning. This study aimed to simulate flow discharge downstream of the Maijaran Dam in Mazandaran Province, using monthly discharge data from the Maijaran Dam hydrometric station spanning the period 2007 to 2022. Following preliminary analyses—including normality and stationarity tests—and decomposition of the data into deterministic and stochastic components, the stochastic part of the time series was selected for modeling. Various time series model structures were evaluated using the Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF). Among the candidate models, the ARMA model was identified as the most suitable. Model orders were determined using ACF and PACF analyses, and model performance was assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the coefficient of determination (R²). Results indicated that the ARMA(3,2) model, with an AIC value of 144.06 and R² of 0.79, outperformed other models and provided acceptable accuracy in flow discharge simulation. The findings demonstrate the high efficacy of stochastic ARMA models in simulation of hydrological time series in data-scarce regions, offering a reliable tool for supporting water resource management decisions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • ARMA
  • Autocorrelation
  • Discharge
  • Stochastic Model

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مدیریت آب و آبیاری
دوره 15، شماره 4
اسفند 1404
صفحه 713-727

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