Model construction, evaluation, and prediction of flood under climate change scenarios using the HEC-HMS mathematical model (A case study: Nazlochai basin, Urmia)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Water Engineering, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.

2 Department of Water Engineering and Urmia Lake Research Institute, and Department of Water Engineering, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.

3 Water Resources, West Azarbaijan Regional Water Joint Stock Company, Urmia, Iran.

10.22059/jwim.2024.378868.1172

Abstract

In integrated watershed management, calculating peak flow for full identification of flood effects and reducing damage is essential. Activities related to estimating runoff volume and flood peak can be easily simplified by adopting a modeling concept and understanding rainfall configuration and the main factors creating runoff. Building a basin model requires the model to respond to low flows and high flows (high return period), which for both, the model must meet the needs. In this study, due to the lack of a data logger or short term recording rainfall gauge(tipping rain gauge) in the study basin; based on six corresponding rainfall events related to nearest UrmiaCamp station for simulation and validation of flood data was used. Thus, four rainfall events for simulation and calibration and two rainfall events for validation were used. Also, calibration was performed for curve number, lag time, and initial losses parameters. After calibrating the model, to ensure the accuracy of the simulated model and calibrated values, the model was validated with new data. The results showed that the simulated hydrograph has an acceptable match with the observed hydrograph. The evaluation indices R2 and RSME in this case are 0.90 and 0.67 at Abajalu station and 0.86 and 0.34 at Tepik station, respectively. The R² value is significant in all cases, below the 5% level. The average Nash index is excellent, and overall, the average percentage error of peak discharge is below 10%, while the percentage error of peak time is below 3%.To build a model for large floods, rainfall with different return periods of the basin entered the model and the peak flow of each return period at the final station of lower Abajalu in Nazlu Chay river was simulated. The results of comparing the estimated flood, observed river flood values (Q1) and calculated with the HEC-HMS model (Q2) in the 25-year return period were 196.1 and 198.9 cubic meters per second, respectively, and in the 50-year return period were 235.2 and 255.1 cubic meters per second, respectively, and the error in the lower return periods up to 10,000 years was between 3 to 7 percent, which indicates a high agreement of the simulated values with the observed ones. Also, by examining the percentage of precipitation changes compared to current conditions and comparing with climate change scenarios, the results confirm that in the optimistic scenario (RCP2.6) in the return period of 10 years, 100 years and 1000 years; It was 9%, 42% and 95%, respectively, and the same comparison in the scenario (RCP4.5) and in the above return period was 12%, 46% and 98%, respectively, and in the scenario (RCP8.5) in the return period of 10 years. 100 years and 1000 years; 6%, 27% and 53% were observed respectively. It can also be acknowledged that in the pessimistic scenario and the increase in droughts, the percentage of flood changes will decrease compared to the other two scenarios. According to the results obtained from the comparison of historical river floods with future floods under climate change scenarios with different return periods with the help of the LARS-WG model, it indicates a large increase in the amount of these floods in the coming years.

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References

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Water and Irrigation Management
Volume 14, Issue 4
February 2025
Pages 953-968

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