Evaluation of the Performance of CMIP6 Models in Estimating Temperature and Precipitation in the Sefidrood Basin

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University

2 Department of Water Resources Research, Water Research Institute, Tehran

3 Researcher, Department of Water Resources Study and Research, Water Research Institute

10.22059/jwim.2024.374623.1155

Abstract

Using the most accurate methods and models to simulate the impact of climate change on meteorological variables in different regions of the world is of utmost importance. In this study, the accuracy of 10 AOGCM models related to the sixth assessment report of the IPCC (CMIP6) was investigated for simulating temperature and precipitation in the Sefidrood Basin. For this purpose, observational data of temperature and precipitation from 16 weather stations located in the basin during the time period from 1980 to 2014 were compared with the output of AOGCMs. The Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) index was utilized for this comparison. The comparison was conducted on both annual and monthly time scales, and the more accurate models were identified for each time period. The results indicated that the accuracy of AOGCM models in estimating temperature in the study area was higher than their accuracy in estimating precipitation. Additionally, different models exhibited varying capabilities in simulating these variables across different months. Based on the results obtained, the MIROC6 and MRI-EMS2-0 models performed better than other models in estimating the temperature of different months. Furthermore, the HadGEM3-GC31-LL model showed a better performance than other models in estimating historical precipitation for most months of the year. Based on the results obtained, it is necessary to select and use the best AOGCM models for each month before conducting climate change simulation studies in the study area.

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