Determination of the Optimal Economic Height Increase of the Zarineh-Roud Dam Using a Simulation-optimization Approach and Evaluation of the Reservoir's Performance Under Climate Change Conditions

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.

10.22059/jwim.2024.370706.1135

Abstract

In this study, the combination of the Improved Water Optimization (IWO) algorithm and the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) simulation model was employed to investigate the potential increase in the economic optimum height of the Zarineh Rood Reservoir Dam. The WEAP model's results indicated deficiencies in meeting the drinking, industrial, agricultural, and environmental needs of the study area under current conditions. Furthermore, the WEAP-IWO modeling results revealed an economically optimal increase in the height of the Zarineh Rood dam by 6.3 meters, resulting in a new reservoir volume estimated at 913.4 million cubic meters. By incorporating this increased reservoir volume into the WEAP model, there was an average 17.76 (precent ) enhancement in demand coverage and water supply system reliability across the study area. Additionally, the study assessed the impact of climate change on inflows to the Zarineh Rood reservoir for the future period (2022-2040), indicating an overall decreasing trend in the average annual river discharge compared to the baseline period. Furthermore, under both the SSP1-2.6 (optimistic) and SSP5-8.5 (pessimistic) scenarios, water scarcity for meeting agricultural demands in the study area is projected to worsen relative to current conditions. Reductions in demand coverage and reliability index results for the study area were observed under both SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios compared to current conditions. Therefore, increasing the dam's height to mitigate the effects of climate change appears necessary.

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Main Subjects

References

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Water and Irrigation Management
Volume 14, Issue 2
October 2024
Pages 309-328

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