Dams Risk Assessment and Their Prioritization Using DEMATEL-ANP Combined Method

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Engineering and Water Management Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Engineering and Water Management Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat ModaresUniversity, Tehran, Iran.



Even though dams have many social benefits, it also has caused social, economic, environmental and technical management risks along time. Due to the fact that the dam is considered a great phenomenon in nature, its effects on the environment are extensive. One of the issues that must be investigated during the operation of dams is the negative environmental effects in the dam construction area. The negative environmental effects of dams are including sedimentation in the dam's reservoir and lake, intensification of erosion in the downstream lands, inundation of agricultural lands due to rise of the underground water level. The effects of the mentioned risks for dam construction may be irreparable. The aim of this study is evaluating the effects of social, economic, technical management and environmental risks affected by the construction of dams on the watershed. Decisions related to the management of these dams require recognize the dangers and risks in the dam and prioritize them. Dam construction projects are more risky than other projects due to the high credits and time spent on their construction. Using multi-criteria decision-making methods is a suitable tool for evaluating different risks in these dams. In this study, the combined DEMATEL-ANP method is used to identify the relationships between risk criteria and sub-criteria and prioritize them. So, four criteria and 42 sub-criteria were determined to evaluate different risks in Mamloo, Taleghan and Lar dams and the network relationships between them were determined. The results show that the employment sub-criterion in economic criterion with a weight of 0.0720 has the highest risk and the land acquisition sub-criterion in management technical criterion with a weight of 0.0029 has the lowest risk compared to all sub-criteria.


Main Subjects

  1. Bid, S., & Siddique, G. (2018). Human risk assessment of Panchet Dam in India using TOPSIS and WASPAS Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon. 2019.e01956
  2. Boran, S., Goztepe, K., & Yavuz, E. (2007) A study on election of personnel based on performance measurement by using Analytic Network Process (ANP). IJCSNS IJ Computer Science and Network Security, 8, 333- 338.
  3. Büyüközkan, G., & Çifçi, G. (2012) A novel hybrid MCDM approach based on fuzzy DEMATEL, fuzzy ANP and fuzzy TOPSIS to evaluate green suppliers. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(3), 3000-3011
  4. Environmental impact assessment studies of Taleghan Reservoir Dam and Sengban Underground Power Plant Volume 1, November 2008, Bazab Consulting Engineers Company. (In Persian).
  5. Gabus, A., & Fontela, E. (1972) World Problems. An Invitation to Further Thought Within the Framework of DEMATEL, Battelle Geneva Research Centre, Geneva.
  6. Ghorbanalipour, S. (2018) Designing Human Health Risk Management Model for Dam Constructhion Projects. (In Persian).
  7. Gu, S., & Wang, B. (2010) The ANP model for dam risk identification of the hydropower project. Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference, APPEEC 2010 (pp. -). Chengdu: AsiaPacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference, APPEEC. doi:10.1109/APPEEC.5449356.
  8. He, G., Chai, J., & Qin, Y.  (2020) Coupled Model of Variable Fuzzy Sets and the Analytic Hierarchy Process and its Application to the Social and Environmental Impact Evaluation of Dam Breaks. WaterResour Manage, 34, 2677-2697.
  9. Karami, Sh., & Karami, E.A. (2019). Sustainability assessment of dams. Environment, Development and Sustainability org/10.1007/s10668-019-00326-3
  10. Kongjun, T., & Vudhivanich, V. (2003) Multicriteria decision making for multireservoir water allocation during shortage: a case study of upper Mun basin. Proceedings of 20th Kasetsart University Annual Conference: Engineering and Architecture. Bangkok, 0222, 24-42.
  11. Lee, J.W., & Kim, S.H. (2000) Using analytic network process and goal programming for interdependent information system project selection. Computers and Operations Research, 27, 367-382.
  12. Lin, C.T., & Wu, C.S. (2008) “Selecting marketing strategy for private hotels in Taiwan using the analytic hierarchy process”, The Service Industries Journal, 28 (8), 1077-1091
  13. Malczewaski, J. (1997) propagation of errors in multicriteria location analysis: a case study in; G. Fandel and T. Gal(eds.), multiple criteria decision making. Berlin: Springer Verlag.
  14. Mei, X., Rosso, R., Huang, G., & Nie, G. (1989) Application of analytical hierarchy process to water resources policy and management in Beijing, Closing the Gap between Theory and Practice, 72-82.
  15. Mohammad Pham, A. (2004) Safety techniques: preliminary analysis (PHA), first edition, Hamedan, Naşr Fanavaran. 37 tables; MS 5/2111. (In Persian).
  16. Parham, H., Gafarzade, N.A., Dehghan, S., & Kiyanerthi, F. (2008) Investigating changes in nitrogen and phosphorus concentration and some environmental parameters in the lake behind Karkheh Dam and determining its balance. The second national conference on Iran's environmental crises and their improvement solutions. Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Unit, Ahvaz Center. (In Persian).
  17. RazaviToosi, S.L., & Samani, J.M.V. (2012) Evaluating water transfer projects using Analytic Network Process (ANP). Water Resources Management, 26, 1999-2014. (In Persian).
  18. Saaty, T.L. (1980) The analytic hierarchy process. New York, NY: McGraw Hill.
  19. Saaty, T.L. (1996) Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback: The Analytic Network Process. RWS Publications. Pittsburgh.
  20. Saaty, T.L. (2005) Theory and applications of the Analytic Network Process. Pittsburgh, PA: RWS Publications. 4922 Ellsworth Avenue. Pittsburgh. PA 15213.
  21. Saaty, T.L. (2006) Applications of Analytic Network Process in entertainment. Operations Research, 1, 41- 55.
  22. Saaty, T.L., & Varges, L.G. (2006) Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process Economic, Political, Social and Technological Applications with Benefits, Opportunities Costs and Risks. Springer, 277.
  23. Sabokbar, H.A., Sarmani, M., Fridooni, F., Karimzade, H., & Rahimi, H. (2008) Sanitary landfill of rural waste using the Analytical Network Process (ANP) model, a case study of the rural areas of Qochan city, Modares Humanities Quarterly, 14, 127-149. (In Persian).
  24. Samaras, G. D., Gkanas, N. I., & Vitsa, K. C. (2014). Assessing risk in Dam projects using AHP and ELECTRE I, International Journal of Construction Management doi. /10.1080/15623599.2014.971942
  25. Sumanta, B., & Giyasuddin, S. (2019) Human risk assessment of Panchet Dam in India using TOPSIS and WASPAS Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods, - 713104, Purba Barddhaman, West Bengal, India.
  26. Talebi, D., & Arashpour, A. (2012) Evaluation of educational performance with a comparative approach of network analysis and industrial management perspective analysis, 10(3), 85-100. (In Persian).
  27. Uygun, Ö., Kaçamak, H., & AKahraman, Ü.A. (2015) An integrated DEMATEL and fuzzy ANP techniques for evaluation and selection of outsourcing provider for a telecommunication company, Computers and Industrial Engineering, 86, 137- 146.
  28. Wolfslehner, B., Vacik, H., & Lexer, M.J. (2005) Application of the analytic network process in multicriteria analysis of sustainable forest management. Forest Ecology and Management, 207, 157-170.
  29. Wu, W.W., & Lee. Y.T. (2007) Selecting knowledge management strategies by using the analytic network process. Expert Syst. Appl, 32, 841-847.
  30. Yang, P.O., Shieh, H.M., & Tzeng, G.H. (2013) A VIKOR technique based on DEMATEL and ANP for information security risk control assessment. Information Sciences, 232, 482- 500.
  31. Zhu, Y., Niu, X., Yang, D., Gu, C., Sun, Q., & Rodriguez, E.F. (2020) Using the DEMATEL-VIKOR Method in Dam Failure Path Identification. J. Environ. Research and Public Health, 17, 1480.