Explaining the Future Scenarios of the Hydro Political Relations of the Border Rivers of Iran and Iraq

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 . Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi university, Tehran, Iran.

2 department of political Geography, faculty of Geography, kharazmi university, Tehran, Iran

3 Water Research Institute, Ministry of Energy Water Research Institute, Tehran, Iran.

10.22059/jwim.2023.351144.1032

Abstract

The entanglement of power relations with the interactions of societies and political-spatial units over fresh water resources is in the field of hydro politics. Those rivers that cross international borders or its different parts are located in the territory of several countries, have had more frequency in hydro political researches. The purpose of this article, which is of a practical nature, is to explain the possible scenarios for the future hydro political relations of the border and joint rivers of Iran and Iraq. The research methodology is descriptive- analytical. The data needed for the research has been collected by library and field method (interview and questionnaire) and analyzed using FCOPRAS, FSOARA, SAW models and Micmac and Scenario Wizard software. The results of the research showed that out of 31 possible situations related to seven scenario models with strong and likely compatibility, the situations that describe the future hydro political relations of the border and common rivers of Iran and Iraq as critical, the most possible situations are in they take. Therefore, the future situation of the hydro political relations of the border and joint rivers of Iran and Iraq has become critical.

Keywords


  1. Abd-Al-Mooty, M., Mansoh, R., & Abdulhadi, A. (2016). Accelerating the words research. Hydrology current research, 7(4), 1-8.
  2. Agrawala, S., Barlow, M., Cullen, H., & Lyon, B. (2001).  The drought and humanitarian crisis in central and southwest Asia: A climate perspective. IRI Rep. https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D8NZ8FHQ.
  3. Al- Ansari, N., Al-Jawad, S., Adamo, N., Sissakia, V-K., Laue, J., & Knutsson, S. (2018). Water quality within the Tigris and Euphrates catchment. journal of earth sciences geotechnical engineering, 8(3), 95-21.
  4. AL-Ansari, N., Ali, Amma, A., & Knutsson, S. (2014). present conditions and future challenges of water resources problems in Iraq. Journal of water resource and protection, 6(12), 1066-1098.
  5. Alam, U. Z. (2002). Questioning the water wars rationale: A case study of the Indus Waters Treaty. The Geographical Journal, 168(4), 341–353.
  6. Amer, M., Jetter, A., & Damin, F. (2013). A review of scenario planning. Futures, 46(1), 23-40.
  7. Anand, G., & Gray, J. (2017). Strategy and organization resource in operations management. Journal of pertains management, 53-56, 1 -8.
  8. Barlow, M., & Hoel, A. (2015). Drought in the middle east and central- south west Asia during winter. Journal article, 96(12), 71-76.
  9. Barlow, M., Zaitchik, B., Paz, S., Black, E., Elansi, J & Hell, A. (2016). A review of drought in the middle east and southwest Asia. Journal of climate, 29(33), 8547- 8574.
  10. Brethaut, C., Ezbakhe, F., Mccracken, M., Wolf, A., & Paltoun, J. (2022). Exploring discursive hydro politics: a conceptual framework and research agenda. International journal of water resources development, 38(3), 464-479.
  11. Cooley, J. K. (1984). The war over water. Foreign Policy, 54(1), 3-26.
  12. De Stefano, L., Edwards, P., De Silva, L., & Wolf, A. T. (2010). Tracking cooperation and conflict in international basins: Historic and recent trends. Water Policy, 12(6), 871-884.
  13. Dolatyar, M., & Gray, T. S. (2000). the politics of water scarcity in the middle east. environmental politics, 9(35), 65-88.
  14. Dombrowsky, I. (2009). Revisiting the potential for benefit sharing in the management of trans-boundary rivers. Water policy, 11(2), 125-140.
  15. Dowlatabadi, N., Banihabib, M.E., Rozbahani, A., & Randhir, T. O. (2020), Enhanced GMCR model for resolving conflicts in a transboundary wetland. Science of the total environment, 744, 140816.
  16. Frey, F.W. (1993). The political context of conflict and cooperation over international river basins. Water International, 18(1), 54-68.
  17. Gerlak, A., Varady, R., & Haverland, A. (2009). Hydro solidarity and international water governance. international negotioation, 14(2), 311-328.
  18. Gleick, P. H. (1994). Water, war & peace in Middle East. Environment science and policy for sustainable development, 36(3), 6-42.
  19. Graei, E. (2017). Knowledge an information science education foresight in Iran with cross impact analysis approach. Academic librarianship and information research, 51(4), 2014-3968.
  20. Grey, D., & Sadooff, C. W. (2003). Beyond the river the benefits of cooperation on international river. Water science and technology, 47(6), 91-96.
  21. Homer-Dixon, T. (1999). Environment, Scarcity and Violence. USA, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  22. (2022). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Portner, H.O., Roberts, D.C., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E.S., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Craig, M., Langsdorf, S., Loschke, S., Moller, V., Okem, A., & Rama, B (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 3056 pp., doi:10.1017/9781009325844.
  23. Issa, I. E., Al-Ansari, N. A., & Sherwany, G. (2014). Expected future of water resources with Tigris- Euphrates River basin Ira. journal of water resource and protection, 6(1), 421-432.
  24. Kaviani Rad, M. (2019). Hydro politics, strains and approaches. Tehran: Research in statute of strategic studies. (In Persian).
  25. Kaviani Rad, M., Sadrania, H., & Nasri Fakhredavood, S. (2023). Water diplomacy role in easing Iran-Iraq in easing Iran- Iraq hydro political tension. Geopolitics, 18(4), 71-93. (In Persian).
  26. Kaviani Rad, M., & Sadrania., H. (2020). Hydro politics, the future research of hydro political relations between Iran and Afghanistan in Harirrood watershed. Tehran: Research in statute of strategic studies. (In Persian)
  27. Kazemi, M., Bozorg-Haddad, O., Fallah Mehdipour, E., & Chu, X. (2022). Optimal water resources allocation in transboundary river basin according to hydro political consideration. Environment. development and sustainability, 24(2), 1188-1206.
  28. Lautze, S., Stites, E., Nojumi., N., & Najimi. F. (2002). QAHT-E-Pool—A cash famine: Food insecurity in Afghanistan 1999-2002. Feinstein International Famine Center Rep, https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document.
  29. Low, M. (1993). Water and power-the politics of a scarce resource in the Jordan river basin. USA: Cambridge university press.
  30. Mianabadi, H., & Amini, A. (2019). Complexity of water politics and environment in the Euphrates and Tigris River basin. Geopolitics, 15(2), 54-86. (In Persian).
  31. Mianabadi, H., & Ghoreishi, S.Z. (2022). Realism and liberalism paradigms in hydro political interactions, Geopolitics, 18(65), 150-186. (In persian).
  32. Ministry of Power. (2014). Studies on updating the balance of water resources, the study areas of the watershed of the western border rivers. Research report of Iran Water Resources Management Company.
  33. Ministry of Power. (2015). Studies on updating the balance of water resources, the study areas of the watershed of the western border rivers. Research report of Iran Water Resources Management Company.
  34. Mirumachi, N., & Allan, J. A. (2007). Revisiting transboundary water governance: Power, conflict cooperation and the political economy. In Proceedings from CAIWA international conference on adaptive and integrated water management: Coping with scarcity. Basel, Switzerland (Vol. 1215).1-24.
  35. Mosavi Shafee, M., & Shapouri, M. (2020), international relations; theory and practice. Tehran: university press. (In Persian)
  36. Nagheeby, M., & Warner, J. (2018). The geopolitical overlay of the hydro politics of the harried river basin. international environmental agreements: politics, law and economic, 18(1), 839-860.
  37. Nami, M., & Mohaadpour, A. (2010). hydro political assess mint of the western basins in Iran: case study on Zab-Sirvan and Alvand. Geoghraphy and regional development, 8(14),133-165. (In Persian).
  38. Nasri Fakhr Davood, S., Kaviani Rad, M., & Sadrania, A. (2022). Challenges of waters resources policy in Iran and Iraq. Journal of public policy, 7(4), 237- 262. (In Persian).
  39. Niroomand fard, F., & Shahidi, A. (2018). Assessing the hydroponics performance of Iran and Iraq in order to optimize the use of common border. waters world politics, 7(2), 233-259. (In Persian).
  40. Rabiei, H., & Shrzad, S. (2018). the analysis of Iraq's raison deters according to Rosenthal. research political geography quarterly, 2(7), 31-54. (In Persian).
  41. Remans, W. (1995). Water and war. Human tares Volkerrecht, 8(1), 1-14.
  42. Sadrania, H., Kaviani rad, M., & Nasri fakhrdavod, S. (2022). The impact of water shortage arises on Iran-Iraq hydro political relations political organizing of space. Political organizing of space, 4(2), 112-125. (In Persian).
  43. Starr, J. R. (1991). Water wars. Foreign Policy, 82(1), 17–36.
  44. Vasegh, M., & Najafi, S. (2022). Identification of effective key factors in the future of Arvand rood hydro politics. Semiannual journal of Iran futures studies, 4(2), 109-134. (In Persian).
  45. Warner, J. (2012). Three lenses on water war, peace and hegemonic struggle on the Nil. International Journal of Sustainable Society, 4(1-2), 173-193.
  46. Wei, Y., Wei, J., Wu, Sh., Yu, D., Ghoreish, M., Lu, Y., Souza, F., Sivapaalan, M., & Tian, F. (2022). Asocio hydrological framework for undersboundary rivers. hydrology and earth system science, 26(8), 2131-2146.
  47. Wolf, A. T. (2007). Shared waters: Conflict and cooperation. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 32, 241-269.
  48. Yeganeh, Y., & Bakhshandeh, E. (2022). Iran’s model of water diplomacy to promote cooperation and prevent conflict over Iran’s boundary river in south west Asia. SABE journals, 185(2), 1-22.
  49. Zaki, Y., & Najafi, S. (2020). Determining Iran hydro politics strategies in Arvind rood basin. Human geography research quarterly, 52(4), 1529-1549. (In Persian).
  50. Zawahri, N. A. (2007). stabilizing water supply: what the Euphrates and Tigris rivers can learn from the Indus, third word Quarterly, 77(6), 1041-1058.
  51. Zeitoun, M., & Warner, J. (2006). Hydro-hegemony-A framework for analysis of trans-boundary water conflicts. Water Policy, 8(5), 435-460.