Investigating the efficiency of the multi-model ensemble system to improve the forecast skill of the numerical precipitation models

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Technology, University College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

2 Department of Environmental Planning and Management, Graduate Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

3 Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Slovak University of Technology, Bratislava, Slovakia.

10.22059/jwim.2023.350086.1025

Abstract

The lead-time and accuracy of the precipitation forecasts have a substantial influence on the flood forecast and warning systems. The application of Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts (EPFs) derived from numerical precipitation models has been developed due to their impact on increasing flood lead-time. This research aims to improve the skill of numerical precipitation models using post-processing techniques. In this regard, EPFs of three meteorological models, e.g., NCEP, UKMO, and KMA, were extracted for sex precipitation events leading to flood in the Dez river basin during 2013-2019. The statistical approaches and data-driven model were applied to post-process the EPFs. For this purpose, the raw forecast of every single model was corrected using linear and power regression models. Then, the corrected output of single models was combined using the proposed model of Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH). The results indicated that Power Regression Model (PRM) outperformed the linear models to correct raw forecasts. After correction of models' output, more accurate results were obtained by NCEP and UKMO models. Moreover, the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) system constructed by the GMDH model (MME_GMDH) had a great effect on the skill of numerical precipitation models, so that the Nash–Sutcliffe and normalized error (NRMSE) efficiency criteria for MME_GMDH respectively were improved on average 23% and 11% in comparison with the PRM. A comparative assessment of the discrimination capability of MME with single ensemble models using ROC curve at the thresholds of 2.5 and 10 mm represented a higher discrimination ability by MME_GMDH for both thresholds. Post-processed EPFs exert as a reliable input to the hydrological models for extreme events forecast.

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References

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Water and Irrigation Management
Volume 13, Issue 1
April 2023
Pages 275-293

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