Projection of the effects of climate change on the inflow to Maroon Dam

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

4 Bureau of Water and Wastewater Macro-Planning, Ministry of Energy, Tehran, Iran.


The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of climate change on the inflow of Maroon Dam using the SWAT model under two climatic scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the next three twenty-year periods. Flow data measured at Idnak and Tang-e-Takab stations were used to calibrate and validate the model. The Nash-Sutcliffe index of Idnak station was equal to 0.69 and 0.65 and Tang-e-Takab station of Behbahan was equal to 0.67 and 0.59 in the calibration and validation stages. The highest temperature increase will be in the final period and under the RCP8.5 climate scenario. To simulate the flow in future periods, precipitation and air temperature under the two scenarios were micro-scaled using the LARS-WG model and by entering the data into the SWAT model, the inflow to the dam was simulated for the next three periods. The results of forecasting the inflow to the dam showed that although the amount of rainfall in the area has increased, but increasing the temperature in this basin will have a greater effect and efficiency in reducing the amount of flow. The highest decrease in the average inflow to the Maroon Dam in the near future is in the middle scenario of RCP4.5 with 21.91 and 26 percent and in the pessimistic scenario of RCP8.5 with 19 and 22.36 percent in February and March respectively. As a result, the maximum reduction of the inflow to the Maroon Dam compared to the baseline conditions is in the RCP4.5 release scenarios.


Main Subjects

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