Risk Analysis of Inter-Basin Water Transfer Plans by Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis Method (Case Study: Iranian Central Plateau)

Document Type : Research Paper


1 M.Sc. Student in Water Resources Engineering, Department of Water Engineering, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.


Nowadays, one of the solutions to meet the growing water needs and achieve regional balance is inter-basin water transfer projects. This study examines eight scenarios in order to evaluate eight scenarios of inter-basin water transfer from great Karun watersheds to the central plateau of Iran with the aim of supplying drinking water. Prioritization and evaluation of these scenarios were performed using four important and effective criteria (social and political risk, environmental and water resources risk, technical risk and economic risk) in inter-basin water transfer according to UNESCO criteria. Then, with the help of these criteria, ten effective basic events in inter-basin water transfer projects. Then, using the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) models, the failure probability of top event "failure of water transfer projects" for all eight scenarios were calculated. The results showed that water transfer from Behesht-Abad basin through Pumping and short tunnel from Behesht-Abad base flow for Isfahan province and khersaan basin - khersaan dam to Yazd and Kerman provinces with crisp and fuzzy failure probability of 0.65 and 0.61 as the eighth scenario, is the superior scenario. Due to the high probability of failure and in order to identify the factors affecting the occurrence of this failure, the basic events were ranked based on their effect in the failure of the top event using two indicators of BI and FIM. The results indicate the greater importance of socio-political and Environment criteria in the failure of inter-basin water transfer projects.


Main Subjects

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