Investigating Temperature Variation due to Climate Change in Iran

Document Type : Research Paper


1 M.Sc. Graduate, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Aburaihan Campus, University of Tehran, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.

4 Assistant Professor, Department of Energy Systems Engineering, Faculty of Energy Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

5 M.Sc. Student, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.

6 Head Expert, Deputy of Soil and Water Conservation and Management, Department of Environment, Tehran, Iran


In this study, the effect of climate change on future temperature (2021-2040) in Iran has been investigated. For this purpose, the results of three general circulation models (GCM) named GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES and IPSL-CM5A-LR were analyzed for two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. CCT model and minimum and maximum daily temperature (1986-1986) were used for downscaling and bias correction. The weighted average annual temperature did not decrease in the studied scenarios. The highest increase in weighted average annual is equal to 3.1 °C, and the highest increment in seasonal temperature is related to summer (8.5°C) due to the RCP8.5 scenario in the HadGEM2-ES model. Also, the maximum temperature decrease occurred in winter (1.2°C) under the conditions of the RCP2.6 scenario and GFDL-ESM2M model. Due to the climate of Iran, most of which is arid, following this increase in temperature, even in optimistic conditions (RCP2.6), the country needs an integrated water resources management program and long-term vision of relevant managers and officials. Rising temperatures pose challenges in various fields such as agriculture, food security, social, economic, cultural, political, international, and so on.


Main Subjects

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