Assessment of climate change impacts on operation of Gorgan Rud basin's dams

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Post Graduate Student, Civil Engineering, Azad University, Tehran Center, Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Irrigation and Civil Engineering, Agriculture Campus, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Department of Water Resources Engineering, College of Abureyhan, University of Tehran, Pakdasht, Iran

Abstract

In this study impact of climate change on operation of Gorgan Rud basin's dams was evaluated. In this regard temperature and precipitation of the basin for 2011-2035 periods were downscaled using SDSM model and CGCM3-A2 outputs. Results showed that annual temperature would increase 0.05°c and annual precipitation would decrease about 4percent. To predict streamflow of the Gorgan Rud basin in 2011-2035, joint probability distribution were employed. Results showed that the total annual streamflow will decrease about 4 percent. Afterwards the predicted temperature, precipitation and streamflow of the basin were introduced to the WEAP model and the allocations to each consumption nodes were calculated. Results showed that the total allocation will decrease from 92 percent to 90 percent and the total storage of the dams will decrease about 10 percent. The final results of this study showed that the water managements of the basin should be changed in the future periods.
 
 

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