Water and Irrigation Management

Water and Irrigation Management

Evaluating the Risk of Manual-Based Standard Operating Procedure Failures in Surface Water Distribution Subject to Inflow Fluctuations

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Misagh Bidabadi
Behzad Azadegan
Mahmoud Mashal
Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Technology of Aburaihan, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
10.22059/jwim.2026.413920.1304
Abstract
This study introduces a practical, data-driven framework for assessing surface water delivery failure risk in irrigation districts exposed to inflow fluctuations at diversion dams. The framework evaluates the vulnerability of manual standard operating procedures using a dynamic hydraulic-operational simulation model developed in MATLAB based on the Integrator–Delay model and manual SOP rules. Risk probability is estimated from historical diversion-flow records through frequency analysis. Vulnerability is quantified using a demand–delivery indicator that compares delivered water with allocated water rights. Risk consequence is represented by an integrated PCA-based index derived from adequacy, dependability, and efficiency indicators. The framework was applied to the Mahyar–Jarghooyeh Irrigation District in arid central Iran, including 659 irrigated units. Results indicate that under normal conditions, more than 90% of the district remains below a risk value of 0.4%. Under low fluctuation conditions, 30–35% of units show risk values between 1.5% and 3%, while 15–20% exceed 3%. Under moderate fluctuations, 60–80% of units fall within the 4–10% risk range. Under severe fluctuations, risk values exceed 60% across 50–60% of the district, and approximately 85% of units fall within the 40–100% range. The spatial results reveal a transition from localized risk under low-stress conditions to widespread systemic vulnerability under severe inflow fluctuations. The proposed framework can support revision of manual operating rules, targeted monitoring, and spatially explicit risk management in surface-water-dependent irrigation districts.
Keywords
Risk assessment
Hydraulic-operational simulation
Surface water distribution
Vulnerability and consequence mapping
Principal component analysis
Subjects
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Water and Irrigation Management
Volume 16, Issue 1
Summer 2026
Pages 179-191