Investigating The Effect Of Climate Change On Inflow To The Anzali Wetland Using Systems Dynamics

Mazandarani Zadeh, Hamed; Karimi, Morteza

doi:10.22059/jwim.2026.403225.1262

Investigating The Effect Of Climate Change On Inflow To The Anzali Wetland Using Systems Dynamics

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

¹ water science and engineering group, faculty of agriculture and engineering, Imam Khomeini International University

² Ph.D. Student, Water Science and Engineering, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.

10.22059/jwim.2026.403225.1262

Abstract

Climate change, vertically, and water resources development plans in the upstream of the basins, horizontally, change the balance of water resources distribution and increase the water-shortage and conflicts between stakeholders. The interaction of water resources systems with socio-economic and environmental systems means that management to water resources has effects on the aforementioned systems. Therefore, this study aims to study the impact of climate change on sources and uses of surface water in the Sefidroud Dam and Anzali Wetland basins then study changes of inflow to Anzali Wetland by using system dynamics. Consequently, precipitation data of CMIP6 project was selected in climate change scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from 2017 to 2040. The subsystems of the Sefidroud Dam & Anzali Wetland basins and a part of the Sefidroud irrigation-drainage network were simulated by a system dynamics approach by using VensimPLE software. According to the findings, in the future period within the RCP scenarios a significant increase will occur in the annual average of the precipitation, between 1.2 to 4.1 percent in the Sefidroud Dam basin and between 0.8 to 15.6 percent in the Anzali Wetland basin. As well, in regard to the role of the significant second six-months of water year on the irrigation network, the average discharge of rivers entering the wetland basin in the second six-months of water year will decrease 16.3 to 32.9 percent. Lastly, the annual average inflow discharge to the Wetland will decrease between 3.1 to 16.3 percent.

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