تحلیل حساسیت برای کمی‌سازی عدم قطعیت در مدل‌سازی سدهای خاکی (مطالعه موردی: سد ماکو)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی عمران، مهندسی آب و سازه‌های هیدرولیکی، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران.

2 گروه مهندسی عمران، هیدرولیک و مکانیک مهندسی رودخانه، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران.

3 گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه یاشار، ازمیر، ترکیه.

10.22059/jwim.2023.360452.1084

چکیده

به­علت وجود عدم قطعیت­های گوناگون در مشخصات مصالح و مدل‌سازی سدهای خاکی، کمی­سازی این عدم قطعیت­ها نیازمند تحلیل حساسیت و کاهش تعداد پارامترهای متغیر برای کاهش هزینه و زمان در مدل‌سازی امری بسیار ضروری به­نظر می­رسد. در این پژوهش، تحلیل عددی سد خاکی ماکو واقع در استان آذربایجان‌غربی به­عنوان مطالعه موردی، با نرم­افزار FLAC2D صورت گرفته و پاسخ استاتیکی به­دست آمد. اثر لایه­های ساخت و مقدار و شکل خطوط هم­تراز تنش و جابه‌جایی با پژوهش‌های قبلی مقایسه و اعتبارسنجی گردید. تعداد 49 متغیر تصادفی (از مشخصات مصالح در نواحی هسته، پوسته، فیلتر، زه‌کش، پی آبرفتی و سنگ بستر) در نظر گرفته شد. با انجام تحلیل حساسیت و با استفاده از نمودار Tornado، تعداد پارامترهای متغیر کاهش و 18 متغیر تصادفی مهم در تحلیل سد خاکی شناسایی شدند. نتایج نشان داد که تغییرات چگالی خشک (γd) پوسته تغییری در حدود 8 درصد و هم‌چنین تغییرات ضریب پواسون (ν) و مدول الاستیسیته (E) هسته تغییری در حدود 7 درصد در پاسخ سد خاکی ایجاد می­کنند. در نهایت، پارامترهای چگالی خشک (γd)، ضریب پواسون (ν)، مدول الاستیسیته (E) و زاویه اصطکاک داخلی (ϕ) به­ترتیب پارامترهای حساس­تری شناسایی شدند که بر پاسخ سدهای خاکی بیش‌ترین تأثیر را می­گذارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Sensitivity analysis for uncertainty quantification in earth dams modeling (Case study: Maku dam)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Behzad Shakouri 1
  • Mirali Mohammadi 2
  • Mir Jafar Sadegh Safari 3
1 Water & Hydraulic Structures Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Eng., Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.
2 Civil Engineering Hydraulics & Hydraulic Structures, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Urmia University, Iran.
3 Department of Civil Engineering, Yaşar University, Izmir, Turkey.
چکیده [English]

Due to the existence of various uncertainties in the materials and modeling of these structures, the quantification of these uncertainties requires sensitivity analysis and reducing the number of variable parameters to reduce cost and time in modeling. In this research, numerical analysis of Maku dam located in West Azerbaijan province which is considered as a case study is performed using FLAC2D software and the static response is obtained. The effect of construction layers and the amount and shape of contours of stress and displacement were compared and validated with previous researches. The 49 random variables (RVs) (of materials properties in the zones of the core, shell, filter, drainage, alluvium and bedrock) was considered. By performing sensitivity analysis and using the Tornado diagram, the number of variable parameters is reduced and 18 important RVs were identified for the modeling and analysis of the earth dam. The results showed that altering the dry density (γd) of the shell causes a change of about 8% and altering the Poisson's ratio (ν) and also the modulus of elasticity (E) of the core leads to a change of about 7% in earth dams’ response. Finally, parameters of dry density (γd), Poisson's ratio (ν), modulus of elasticity (E) and internal friction angle (ϕ) were identified as more sensitive parameters that have the greatest impact on the response of earth dams.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Earth dam
  • Uncertainty quantification
  • Tornado diagram

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