پیش‌بینی اثرات سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم بر دما و بارش بر اساس مدل‌های CMIP6 (مطالعه موردی: ایستگاه ساری)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه آب و سازه‌های هیدرولیکی، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه صنعتی نوشیروانی بابل، بابل، ایران.

2 دانشیار، گروه آب و سازه‌های هیدرولیکی، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه صنعتی نوشیروانی بابل، بابل، ایران.

چکیده

تغییرات اقلیمی بر تمامی فرآیندهای محیط‌زیستی و جامعه تأثیرگذار است. در این مطالعه سه مدل ACCESS-CM2، HadGEM3-GC31-LL و NESM3 از مجموعه مدل‌های برونداد اقلیمی سری ششم (CMIP6) صحت‌سنجی شده و از مناسب‌ترین مدل (ACCESS-CM2) با استفاده از جدیدترین سناریوهای انتشار که به اسم خط سیر اجتماعی-اقتصادی (SSP) نام گذاری شده است، به شبیه‌سازی پارامترهای آب و هوایی ایستگاه ساری پرداخته شد. برای ریزمقیاس سازی از مدل LARS-WG6 استفاده شد و دو سناریو انتشار SSP2-4.5 و SSP5-8.5‌، برای دو دوره زمانی (2060-2041) و (2100-2081) بکار گرفته شد. در ادامه از آزمون‌های آماری F-test، t-student، Kolomogrov-Smirnov، ضریب تعیین (R2 ) و ریشه میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE)، جهت صحت‌سنجی مدل LARS-WG بهره گرفته شد و نتایج حاصل از صحت‌سنجی نشان از کارایی مناسب مدل دارد. همچنین با بکار بردن آزمون من-کندال و شیب سن روند پارامترهای مشاهداتی اقلیمی مشخص شد. نتایج به طور کلی نشان داد که میانگین تغییرات دما از 16/1 تا 09/4 درجه سانتی‌گراد افزایش خواهد یافت و میانگین مقدار بارش سالانه نیز در حدود 24 درصد تا 36 درصد افزایش می‌یابد. نتایج آزمون شیب سن برای دمای حداکثر و حداقل نشان دهنده صعودی بودن روند این پارامتر دارد و برای بارش روند مذکور نزولی است. تغییرات بلند مدت آب و هوایی یکی از عناصر تاثیر گذار بر منابع آب‌های زیرزمینی و سطحی می‌باشد، که ضروری است برای حفظ زیست‌بوم و سازگاری انسان با تغییر اقلیم، توسعه استراتژی‌های مدیریتی مناسب برای آینده در نظر گرفته شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Forecasting the effects of climate change scenarios on temperature & precipitation based on CMIP6 models (Case study: Sari station)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Adib Roshani 1
  • Mahdi Hamidi 2
1 MSc Student, Department of Water and Hydraulic Structures, Factually of Civil Engineering, Babol Noshirvani University of Technology, Babol, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Water and Hydraulic Structures, Factually of Civil Engineering, Babol Noshirvani University of Technology, Babol, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Climate change has many impacts on all environmental processes and society. In this study, three models selected from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) including ACCESS-CM2, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, and NESM3 are validated. The best model (i.e. ACCESS-CM2) is selected to simulate the climatic parameters of the Sari Station using the latest emission scenarios called “shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP).” The LARS-WG is adopted for downscaling, and two emission scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 are used for two periods 2041-2060 and 2081-2100, respectively. Several statistical tests are conducted including F-test, T-student, Kolomogrov-Smirnov, coefficient of determination (R2), and root mean square error (RMSE) to validate the LARS-WG model. The verification results indicate the efficiency of the LARS-WG model. The Man-Kendal and Sen’s slope tests are adopted to determine the trend of climatic observational parameters. In general, the results show that the average temperature change increases in the range of 1.16-4.09 °C and also the average annual rainfall increases by 24-36 percent. The Sen’s slope results in terms of maximum and minimum temperatures show an ascending trend in this parameter, but it is descending in the rainfall. Since long-term climate change is one of the factors affecting groundwater and surface resources, it is necessary to develop proper management strategies for the future, preserving ecosystems, and adapting humans to these changes.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Downscaling
  • Emission Scenario
  • LARS-WG
  • SSP

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مدیریت آب و آبیاری
دوره 11، شماره 4
بهمن 1400
صفحه 781-795

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