Investigating The Effect Of Climate Change On Inflow To The Anzali Wetland Using Systems Dynamics

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Water Sciences and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.

10.22059/jwim.2026.403225.1262

Abstract

Climate change, along with extensive water development in upstream basins, has altered the balance of water allocation and intensified water scarcity and conflicts among stakeholders. Considering the close interlinkage of water resources with socio-economic and environmental systems, inadequate integrated water management can lead to significant implications across these sectors. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on surface water resources and demands in the Sefidrood basin and Anzali Wetland watershed, and subsequently examines potential changes in inflow discharge to Anzali Wetland using a system dynamics modeling approach. Precipitation projections from the CMIP6 framework under SSP2.6, SSP4.5, and SSP8.5 scenarios for the period 2017–2040 were utilized, and the subsystems of the Sefidrood basin, Anzali Wetland catchment, and part of the irrigation–drainage network were simulated in VensimPLE. Results indicate that despite projected increases in mean precipitation, the rising upstream water withdrawals and future agricultural water demand may reduce the annual average inflow to Anzali Wetland by approximately 3.1% to 16.3%. Moreover, given the critical importance of the second half of the water year for irrigation supply, average river inflow during this period is expected to decline by 16.3% to 32.9% across scenarios.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Water and Irrigation Management
Volume 16, Issue 1
July 2026
Pages 31-48

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