Water and Irrigation Management

Water and Irrigation Management

Dynamic Assessment of the Qazvin Plain Aquifer Vulnerability Using Non-Compensatory Spatial Operators

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Alireza Tajasosi
Nima Moghaddam
Afshin Ashrafzadeh
Department Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
10.22059/jwim.2026.413293.1300
Abstract
This study presents a novel non-compensatory analytical framework based on spatial multiplication operators to evaluate the cumulative risk of Qazvin Plain aquifer over a 21-year period (2001–2022). Unlike traditional compensatory models that mask critical hotspots through averaging, this approach integrates piezometric and hydrochemical data to identify absolute critical zones suffering simultaneously from quantitative and qualitative degradation. Results reveal a significant regime shift from relative stability to chronic stress, with a critical tipping point in 2010–2012 when high-risk areas expanded from ~30% to over 50% of the plain. By 2022, more than 65% of the aquifer was under critical stress, with 42.5% in high-risk condition. The non-compensatory model unveiled hidden critical cores in the central plain that conventional methods misclassified as moderate risk. Findings indicate a nonlinear self-reinforcing process driven by a positive feedback loop between saturated thickness decline and salinity increase. These results underscore the necessity of shifting from generalized management to place-based management and prioritizing immediate interventions (demand management in the critical eastern zones and artificial recharge in western areas).
Keywords
Aquifer Vulnerability
Spatiotemporal Analysis
Qazvin Plain
Synergistic Risk
Non-compensatory Operators
GIS
Subjects
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Water and Irrigation Management
Volume 16, Issue 2
Summer 2026
Pages 303-323