واکاوی آماری بارش‌های زمستانه در حوضه آبریز دز

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم‌آباد، ایران.

10.22059/jwim.2025.403277.1263

چکیده

این پژوهش به بررسی تغییرات توزیع و کمیت بارش زمستانه در 18 ایستگاه واقع در حوضه‌ آبریز دز، غرب ایران طی دوره 2024-1975 پرداخته است. نتایج حاصل از آزمون من-کندال اصلاح‌شده نشان می‌دهد که ۵۰ درصد ایستگاه‌ها (نُه ایستگاه از جمله تخت‌دره، کشور و تنگ‌پنج) روند کاهشی معنی‌داری در سطح ۵ درصد داشته‌اند. براساس شیب سن، شدیدترین کاهش‌ها (بیش از ۳ میلی‌متر در سال) در ایستگاه‌های تنگ پنج بختیاری، تله‌زنگ و کشور رخ داده که در مجموع به کاهشی بیش از ۱۵۰ میلی‌متر در طول دوره مطالعه منجر شده است. تغییرات زمانی بیش‌تر در دو مقطع ۱۹۹۰ و ۲۰۰۶ متمرکز بوده که نشان‌دهنده تأثیر عوامل بزرگ‌مقیاس اقلیمی است. علاوه بر این، تحلیل توزیع آماری داده‌ها قبل و بعد از زمان تغییر روند، نشان‌دهنده تغییر در نوع توزیع (مانند تغییر از ویبل به لاگ-نرمال براساس آماره کلموگروف-اسمیرنف) و تغییرات قابل‌توجه در شاخص‌های آماری مانند واریانس و چولگی در بسیاری از ایستگاه‌ها بوده است. این یافته‌ها همسو با پیش‌بینی‌های گزارش‌های IPCC و مطالعات منطقه‌ای دیگر است و نشان می‌دهد کاهش بارش زمستانه یک چالش بزرگ‌مقیاس با پیامدهای جدی برای منابع آب منطقه است. هم‌چنین نتایج نشان‌دهنده تغییرات فرم تابع توزیع و تغییرات شدید چولگی در زیربازه بعد از زمان تغییر روند است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Statistical Analysis of Winter Precipitation Values in the Dez River Basin

نویسنده [English]

  • Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi
Department of Water Engineering, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran.
چکیده [English]

This research investigates the variations in the distribution and quantity of winter precipitation at 18 stations located in the Dez River Basin, western Iran, during the period 1975-2024. The results from the modified Mann-Kendall test indicate that 50% of the stations (9 stations, including Takht Dareh, Keshvar, and Tang Pang Bakhtiari) have experienced a significant decreasing trend at the 5% level. According to the Sen's slope estimator, the most severe decreases (more than 3 mm per year) occurred at the Tang Pang Bakhtiari, Telezang, and Keshvar stations, which collectively led to a reduction of more than 150 mm over the study period. Temporal changes were primarily concentrated around two points: 1990 and 2006, indicating the influence of large-scale climatic factors. Furthermore, the analysis of the statistical distribution of data before and after the change points revealed a change in the distribution type (Changing from Weibull to Log-Normal based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics) and significant changes in statistical indices such as variance and skewness at many stations. These findings are consistent with the predictions of IPCC reports and other regional studies and demonstrate that the decrease in winter precipitation is a large-scale challenge with serious implications for the region's water resources. The results also indicate changes in the form of the distribution function and severe changes in skewness in the sub-interval after the change point.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate Development
  • Extreme Values
  • Precipitation Pattern
  • Variability

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مدیریت آب و آبیاری
دوره 15، شماره 4
اسفند 1404
صفحه 843-859

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