Exploring the Determinants of Agricultural Water Productivity in Iran using the fuzzy Delphi method

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.

2 Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran; and Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.

10.22059/jwim.2025.399914.1249

Abstract

This study aims to identify and analyze the key factors influencing water productivity in agriculture through the application of the Fuzzy Delphi Method.Through a systematic literature review, 194 factors were extracted and categorized into three domains: climate change (43 factors, 22.1 Percent), policy (77 factors, 39.6 Percent), and technology (74 factors, 38.2 Percent). These factors were incorporated into a semi-structured questionnaire distributed to 18 experts. Applying a consensus threshold of 0.8 in the fuzzy Delphi model, the data were fuzzified, aggregated, and defuzzified. Findings revealed that 32 factors (16.5 Percent) were selected as consensus-based key determinants. Among them, 18 factors were from the policy domain (23.4 Percent), 10 from the technology domain (13.5 Percent), and 4 from the climate change domain (9.3 Percent). The highest defuzzified value corresponded to "hybrid seed production" (0.92), highlighting the significance of biotechnological innovations in enhancing water productivity. Other consensus-driven factors included "promotion of genetic improvement" (0.90), "establishment of national Based on the research findings, two controllable pillars—data-driven infrastructure and technological innovations—are recommended as the most effective factors for enhancing agricultural water productivity.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Water and Irrigation Management
Volume 15, Issue 4
March 2026
Pages 805-826

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