Performance Evaluation of Combined Scenarios of Cropping Patterns and Environmental Water Supply from the Perspective of Economic, Social, and Water Resource Indicators in the Downstream of the Karkheh Dam

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Faculty of Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

2 Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Faculty of Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.

10.22059/jwim.2025.392990.1216

Abstract

Water resources management in arid and semi-arid regions is confronted with challenges such as limited availability, environmental demands, and socio-economic pressures. Achieving a balance between environmental needs, social equity, and economic efficiency is of critical importance. This study simulates and evaluates the performance of various scenarios for supplying environmental water demands and cropping patterns downstream of the Karkheh Dam, using economic, social, and water resource indicators. The 22-year operational period of the Karkheh reservoir (2001–2023) was selected as the study timeframe. In this research, various water supply scenarios downstream of the Karkheh Dam were examined through simulation of agricultural and environmental water demands. To assess the effect of cropping patterns on water resource evaluation criteria, three hydrological years—dry (2017–2018), normal (2020–2021), and wet (2019–2020)—were considered as minimum, normal, and maximum conditions, respectively. Environmental demand satisfaction was analyzed under three scenarios: optimal, favorable, and moderate. The results indicated that in the minimum cropping pattern, due to the smaller cultivated area, the supply reliability and social equity indicators showed more favorable outcomes. In the optimal environmental scenario, supply reliability decreased from 100 percent to 76.33 percent, and water deficit increased from 0 to 20.32 percent. However, the economic value was approximately 2,560 trillion IRR lower than in the maximum cropping pattern. Under the same scenario with maximum cropping, supply reliability dropped to 53.91 percent and the deficit rose to 42.04 percent, with increased social inequality. Despite greater stress, the economic value reached 7,441.94 trillion IRR. The findings highlight the necessity of balancing environmental requirements, economic productivity, and social justice.

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Water and Irrigation Management
Volume 15, Issue 4
March 2026
Pages 767-785

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