ارزیابی عدم قطعیت بارش ماهانه با به‌کارگیری GCMها و روش‌های تصحیح اریبی نگاشت چندکی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه مهندسی و مدیریت آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

10.22059/jwim.2024.369044.1121

چکیده

با توجه به درهم‌تنیدگی سیستم اقلیمی و رابطۀ غیرخطی اقیانوس و جو در آن، شناخت منشأ عدم قطعیت و لحاظ آن در پیش‌نگری‌ متغیرهای اقلیمی، به‌منظور ارزیابی مناسب سیاست‌های سازگاری و کاهش گازهای گلخانه‌ای از اهمیت بسیاری برخوردار است. هدف از مطالعۀ حاضر، کمی‌سازی عدم قطعیت متوسط بارش ماهانه در دوره‌های تاریخی و آینده با توجه به مدل‌های گردش عمومی جو، روش‌های تصحیح اریبی، سناریوهای SSP و دوره‌های پیش‌نگری است. بر این اساس، خروجی 10 مدل‌ منتخب گردش عمومی جو با استفاده از روش‌های مختلف تصحیح اریبی نگاشت چندکی برای محدودۀ مطالعاتی رفسنجان اصلاح شد و جهت بررسی عدم قطعیت مرتبط با سناریوهای SSP و دوره‌های پیش‌نگری، روش تصحیح اریبی مناسب انتخاب گردید. به‌منظور کمی‌سازی عدم قطعیت موارد مذکور نیز از دو معیار آماری انحراف معیار و دامنۀ میان چارکی استفاده گردید. نتایج حاصل نشان دادند که در دوره تاریخی، انحراف معیار و دامنۀ میان چارکی میانگین بارش ماهانه براساس نوع روش تصحیح اریبی و GCM نسبت به دورۀ آتی کم‌تر است. هم‌چنین در دوره‌های تاریخی و آینده، انحراف معیار و دامنۀ میان چارکی میانگین بارش ماهانه براساس نوع روش تصحیح اریبی کم‌تر از انحراف معیار و دامنۀ میان چارکی محاسبه‌شده برحسب نوع مدل GCM است. به‌طور کلی برای دورۀ آتی، عدم قطعیت دوره‌های پیش‌نگری و انتخاب GCM نسبت به دو منشأ دیگر عدم قطعیت (روش تصحیح اریبی و سناریوها) بیش‌تر بوده و نیازمند ارزیابی دقیق‌تری هستند. نتایج حاصل از این مطالعه می‌تواند به درک بهتری از منشأ‌های مختلف عدم قطعیت‌های طبیعی در‌ پیش‌نگری‌های تغییر اقلیم کمک کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Uncertainty assessment of monthly precipitation using multiple GCMs and quantile mapping bias correction methods

نویسندگان [English]

  • Nima Nemati Shishehgaran
  • Fariba Babaeian
  • Hojjat Mianabadi
Department of Water Engineering and Management, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Given the complexity of the climate system and the non-linear relationships between the ocean and atmosphere within this system, it is imperative to comprehend and consider the uncertainties that stem from different sources. Understanding and accounting for uncertainties play a crucial role in predicting climatic variables and facilitating a comprehensive evaluation of greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation policies. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties in historical and future average monthly precipitation by employing various General Circulation Models (GCMs), bias correction methods, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios, and seven projection periods. To achieve this, the outputs of ten GCMs were adjusted using nine quantile mapping bias correction methods for the Rafsanjan study area, and a suitable method was chosen to analyze the uncertainties of SSPs and projection periods. Two statistical criteria, namely the standard deviation and interquartile range, were utilized to measure the uncertainties. The results revealed that the standard deviation and interquartile range of average monthly precipitation were lower during the historical period compared to the projection period. This difference was determined based on the selection of bias correction methods and GCMs. Furthermore, for both the historical and future periods, the STDEVs and IQRs of average monthly precipitation were lower depending on the type of bias correction methods rather than the type of GCMs. In general, the uncertainties associated with projection periods and the type of GCMs are higher during future periods compared to other sources of uncertainties such as bias correction methods and SSP scenarios. This highlights the necessity for a more accurate analysis. This study contributes to an enhanced understanding of the inherent uncertainties in climate change projections that arise from various sources.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Interquartile range
  • Projection periods
  • Rafsanjan study area
  • Standard deviations

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مدیریت آب و آبیاری
دوره 14، شماره 2
مهر 1403
صفحه 463-486

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