کمّی‌سازی اثرات ناشی از فعالیت‌های انسانی بر کیفیت آب‌های زیرزمینی در ایران: کاربرد رگرسیون کوانتایل به‌روش گشتاوری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران.

2 گروه مهندسی آب، فاضلاب و محیط زیست، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، آب و محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

10.22059/jwim.2024.369475.1124

چکیده

تا کنون مطالعات متعددی به ارزیابی کیفیت منابع آب زیرزمینی در ایران پرداخته‌اند، اما سنجش سهم عوامل مختلف انسانی بر افت کیفیت این منابع کم‌تر مورد توجه پژوهش‌گران قرار گرفته شده است. در این مطالعه به‌منظور پرکردن این خلأ ابتدا شاخص کیفیت آب زیرزمینی برای تمامی استان‌های ایران در بازه سال‌های 1392 الی 1398 محاسبه شده و سپس با به‌کارگیری یک رویکرد نوین در برآورد رگرسیون کوانتایل، اثرات عوامل انسانی بر شاخص کیفیت اندازه‌گیری شده است. هم‌چنین به‌منظور بررسی نقش زیرساخت‌های فاضلاب بر کیفیت آب‌های زیرزمینی، دو شاخص ترکیبی برای توسعه‌یافتگی زیرساخت‌های تصفیه و جمع‌آوری فاضلاب به‌روش آنتروپی ساخته شده‌اند. نتایج مطالعه نشان می‌‌دهد که در نقاط دارای آب زیرزمینی با کیفیت مطلوب، اصلی‌ترین عامل اثرگذار بر کیفیت آب زیرزمینی جمعیت می‌باشد، به‌طوری‌که یک درصد رشد جمعیت 71/0 درصد شاخص کیفیت را افزایش داده است. در نواحی دارای آب‌های زیرزمینی با کیفیت متوسط و پایین نیز اصلی‌ترین عامل در افت کیفی این منابع رشد اقتصادی بخش کشاورزی می‌باشد که هر یک درصد افزایش آن بیش از 5/2 درصد شاخص کیفیت را افزایش داده است. رشد جمعیت و رشد اقتصادی بخش صنعت و معدن نیز سایر عوامل اثرگذار در این نواحی می‌باشند. یک درصد رشد در شاخص‌های ترکیبی توسعه‌یافتگی زیرساخت‌های تصفیه و جمع‌آوری فاضلاب نیز به‌طور متوسط 05/0 و 01/0 درصد شاخص کیفیت را کاهش داده است. براساس نتایج مطالعه کاهش شدت مصرف نهاده‌ها در بخش کشاورزی و ارتقای زیرساخت‌های فاضلاب اصلی‌ترین راه‌کارهای ممکن در خصوص مدیریت کیفی منابع آب زیرزمینی در ایران می‌باشند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Quantification of anthropogenic factors affecting Iran’s groundwater quality: Application of method of moments quantile regression

نویسندگان [English]

  • Soorena Naderi 1
  • Ali Moridi 2
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
2 Department of Water, Wastewater and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Until now, various studies have been conducted regarding the quality of groundwater resources in Iran, however, few researchers have paid attention to the assessment of the role of different anthropogenic factors in the decrease of the quality of these resources. In this study, in order to fill this gap, the groundwater quality index was first calculated for all provinces of Iran between 2013 to 2019, and then by using a novel approach in estimating quantile regression, the influences of anthropogenic factors on the quality index were measured. Furthermore, to investigate the role and impact of sewage infrastructures on the quality of groundwater, two composite indices for the development of sewage treatment and collection infrastructures have been calculated by Entropy method. The findings of the study illustrate that in areas with high quality groundwater, the main factor affecting the quality of groundwater is the population, so that one percent growth in it increases the quality index by 0.71 percent. In places with medium and low-quality groundwater, the main factor in the quality decline of these resources is the economic growth of the agricultural sector. In fact, each percent growth in the economy of the agricultural sector amplifies the quality index by more than 2.5 percent. Other influential factors in these areas are population growth and economic growth of industry and mining sector. One percent growth in the composite indicators of the development of sewage treatment and collection infrastructure has also lessened the quality index by 0.05 and 0.01 percent on average. According to the results of the study, reducing input intensity in the agricultural sector and upgrading the sewage infrastructure are the main possible solutions regarding the quality management of groundwater resources in Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Composite Index
  • Generalized Method of Moments
  • Groundwater Quality Index
  • Sewage Infrastructures

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مدیریت آب و آبیاری
دوره 14، شماره 2
مهر 1403
صفحه 487-508

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