مدیریت آب و آبیاری

مدیریت آب و آبیاری

ارزیابی اثرات تغییر کاربری اراضی با پایش تبخیر- تعرق واقعی در دوره های آتی(مطالعه موردی دشت ورامین)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
بهزاد آزادگان
زهرا مسلمی
علیرضا مساح بوانی
گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده فناوری کشاورزی (ابوریحان)، دانشگاه تهران، ایران.
10.22059/jwim.2026.418148.1320
چکیده
هدف این پژوهش، ارزیابی اثرات تغییر کاربری اراضی، با پایش تبخیر-تعرق واقعی، در دوره‌های آتی دشت ورامین، می‌باشد. تبخیر-تعرق، با چهار الگوریتم تک‌منبعی سنجش از دور: تعادل انرژی سطحی زمین (SEBAL)، نقشه‌برداری تبخیر-تعرق در وضوح بالا با کالیبراسیون داخلی (METRIC)، سیستم تعادل انرژی سطحی (SEBS)، تراز انرژی سطحی ساده‌شده (SSEB) و تصاویر سنجنده MODIS، از ماه می تا آگوست سال‌های 2009-2007، بررسی شد. اثر تغییر کاربری اراضی تصاویر Landsat سال‌های 1999، 2009 و 2019 با الگوریتم حداکثر احتمال و ضریب کاپا، به‌ترتیب 807/0، 837/0 و 801/0 و دقت 12/87، 49/90 و 99/88 درصد، به کاربری پهنه‌های آب، پوشش گیاهی، صخره، مناطق ساخته‌شده، اراضی بایر و اراضی کشاورزی، طبقه‌بندی و با مدل‌ساز تغییر سرزمین (LCM) و مدل تلفیقی اتوماتای سلولی-زنجیره مارکوف (CA-Markov)، نقشه کاربری اراضی سال‌های 2030 و 2059، شبیه‌سازی، گردید. نتایج نشان داد، کاربری اراضی کشاورزی، از مساحت 8/44 هزارهکتار در سال ۱۹۹۹ به 3/39 هزارهکتار در سال ۲۰۰۹ و به 6/38 هزارهکتار در سال ۲۰۱۹، کاهش یافت. وسعت کاربری مناطق شهری، روستایی و صنعتی در سال ۱۹۹۹، مقدار 57/6 درصد از کل منطقه بوده است، اما در سال ۲۰۱۹ به 48/18 درصد افزایش یافت. کاربری پوشش گیاهی مرتعی از مقدار 9/14 هزارهکتار در سال ۱۹۹۹ به 6/11 هزارهکتار در سال ۲۰۰۹ و به 4/6 هزارهکتار در سال ۲۰۱۹، کاهش یافت. براساس نتایج داده‌ها، برای تغییر کاربری اراضی و تبخیر-تعرق واقعی دوره‌های آتی، روند افزایشی، پیش‌بینی می‌شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
تغییر کاربری اراضی
الگوریتم
سنجش از دور
تبخیر-تعرق واقعی
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Assessment of the Impacts of Land-Use Change through Monitoring Actual Evapotranspiration in Future Periods (Case Study: Varamin Plain)

نویسندگان English

Behzad Azadegan
Zashra Moslemi
Ali Reza Massah Bavani
Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Technology (Aburihan), University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

The objective of this study was to assess the impacts of land-use change by monitoring actual evapotranspiration in future periods in the Varamin Plain. Evapotranspiration was investigated from May to August during 2007–2009 using four single-source remote-sensing algorithms: the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), Mapping Evapotranspiration at High Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC), the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS), and the Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB), together with MODIS sensor imagery. To evaluate the effects of land-use change, Landsat images from 1999, 2009, and 2019 were classified using the maximum likelihood algorithm. The corresponding Kappa coefficients were 0.807, 0.837, and 0.801, respectively, with classification accuracies of 87.12%, 90.49%, and 99.88%. The land-use classes included water bodies, vegetation cover, rocky areas, built-up areas, barren lands, and agricultural lands. Using the Land Change Modeler (LCM) and the integrated Cellular Automata–Markov Chain (CA–Markov) model, land-use maps for 2030 and 2059 were simulated. The results showed a declining trend in agricultural land area, from 44.8 thousand hectares in 1999 to 39.3 thousand hectares in 2009 and 38.6 thousand hectares in 2019. Urban, rural, and industrial areas exhibited an increasing trend: these land uses covered 6.57% of the total study area in 1999, increasing to 18.48% by 2019. Rangeland vegetations cover also declined, from 14.9 thousand hectares in 1999 to 11.6 thousand hectares in 2009 and 6.4 thousand hectares in 2019. Based on the data results, an increasing trend is predicted for land use change and actual evapotranspiration in future periods.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Actual evapotranspiration
Algorithm
Land-use change
Remote sensing
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مدیریت آب و آبیاری
دوره 16، شماره 2
تابستان 1405
صفحه 447-460